July 29 Crypto Options Market Research Report
Trump's BTC conference was exciting. After the event was launched, the implied volatility fell from the 85th percentile to below the 50th percentile; event-driven short volatility players won a big victory
Coincall (the first U-based alt options exchange, trading popular alt options such as Sol, Ton, Ordi), a third-party custodial options platform with simple KYC (select HK), invitation link: https://coincall.com/r/19298649
I. Core Views
1- Trump promised at the Bitcoin conference to include Bitcoin in the national reserve in the future. Before the event was launched, the implied volatility of BTC doomsday options soared to more than 100;
2- The spot level maintains the previous view and continues to +delta, but the short-term Trump's call effect is indeed average. Option players should pay attention to the sell call position volume;
3- Focus this week: Fed's July interest rate decision, US non-farm payrolls + my country's PMI. The former corresponds to whether the expectation of US dollar interest rate cuts is accelerating, and the latter corresponds to whether the domestic economy is under pressure to force the policy limit;
4- The copycat option targets Sol and Ordi also showed a drop in volatility of about 20%
Summary: Event-driven weekends and tg group partners communicate about short volatility opportunities, master the asymmetric profit and loss ratio; major events still exist this week, and subsequent daily reports will prompt volatility trading opportunities.
2. Option block trading
BTC and ETH have limited weekend block trading
SOL has a large number of option transactions expiring this Friday (TG group has been prompted)
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Last Friday, SPY and QQQ rose, and the VIX index fell. The overall rebound was smooth and large and small tickets rose at the same time. The overall market liquidity is sufficient. Last Friday and this week, I will continue to choose opportunities to deploy VIX derivatives; DPST option positions expire, and I will continue to roll this week
A shares:
This week, the zzj mid-year economic work conference determined the intensity of short-term economic stimulus. In the case of the market's "immunity" to the determination of institutional reform, whether the stimulus policy will loosen up in the old economy and whether the further supervision of fiscal reinforcement will be implemented is critical. My personal position of index option volatility longs continues to wait patiently and unmoved.
