According to Jinshi Data, CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%.
By September, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 87.7%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 11.9%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 0.4%.