After rising to a high of $68,000 on July 22, Bitcoin has fallen back 6% in the past three days, and this morning (26th) it even fell below $64,000. Fortunately, it quickly bottomed out and rebounded. As of the time of writing, it is quoted at $67,150.

Although the recent sharp drop in U.S. technology stocks has once affected the sentiment of the Bitcoin market, judging from macro indicators such as on-chain data and historical trends, the Bitcoin bull market does not seem to be over yet.

Despite market concerns, a Bitcoin bull run remains viable, with key indicators still supporting an uptrend.

MVRV is still above the 365-day moving average: The current MVRV (total circulation value/realized market value ratio) momentum indicator (orange) remains above the 365-day moving average (blue), indicating that the upward trend of Bitcoin still prevails.

Bitcoin spot ETF market demand: Data shows that since its listing on January 11, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached US$17.5 billion. The comparison chart of ETF flow and new supply from miners shows that the market demand for ETFs has clearly exceeded the issuance volume.

Bitcoin price performance since halving: Historical trends show that Bitcoin usually falls immediately after halving and then rises sharply within a year.

Bitcoin historical trend: Bitcoin has performed well in 8 of the past 11 years, and only experienced sharp pullbacks during the bear market in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Judging from the Bitcoin full-year performance chart, the possibility of Bitcoin performing poorly this year seems low.

Pay attention to the two major time points in the future, Bitcoin may skyrocket?

November is typically Bitcoin’s best performing month, and the fourth quarter also tends to be strong.

Data shows that Bitcoin has a strong rise between the second and fourth quarters, and the latter usually performs best, reaching 93.38%, which shows that there is still hope for a sharp rise in October and November. This November coincides with the US election, and the market is currently paying close attention to whether Trump will be elected and his related political views.

The following is the average return performance of Bitcoin per quarter from 2013 to 2022:

First quarter: 5.91%

Second quarter: 32.83%

Third quarter: 4.21%

Fourth quarter: 93.38%

While the above data suggests that Bitcoin prices are expected to rise further, there may also be challenges. We still need to pay close attention to regulatory developments, macroeconomic events, technological advances and changes in market sentiment, all of which will affect its trend.

Especially now, the selling pressure from Mentougou and the huge outflow from Grayscale every day have no impact on the long-term, but the risk is still relatively large in the short term, so short-term profits can be sold first or the principal can be sold with profits, and the principal can be protected first. Just like yesterday's article "US stock market crashes, Mentougou sells coins, Grayscale ships Ethereum; can the fragile market still hold up?", it is definitely going to rise in the second half of the year, and interest rate cuts will also be hyped. In the short term, it depends on whether ETI's funds can withstand the selling pressure from Mentougou and various governments. If it can be fully digested, there will be no problem. If it can't bear it, it will have to be washed out again, so the capital inflow in the market is more critical now. Therefore, the recent market is mainly based on waiting, and plans will be made based on the capital inflow.

Trump's narrowly missed shot last week reversed the recent decline of the entire cryptocurrency market and rebounded by more than 15%. Not only that, Trump himself will attend the Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville, USA this week (25th). Polls show that candidates with a higher chance of being elected support Bitcoin, which also drives the market's bullish sentiment to continue to accumulate - it may be a good trading opportunity in the near future. (Of course, you also need to pay attention to the risk of overheated trading)

What everyone is most concerned about is that Trump, the former US president and current presidential candidate, will deliver a 30-minute speech at the Nakamoto Stage from 2:00 to 2:30 pm on July 27, 2024. Converted to UTC+8 time, it is 3:00 to 3:30 in the morning of the next day (July 28).

As for the effect brought by Trump, whether the market has already priced in in advance, or whether he will offer bigger beef at the conference to push the market to continue to rise, is also a time point worthy of attention.

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