I saw someone asking why the market fell so sharply in the past two days, so I will briefly share my views on the market. I will not lay a lot of groundwork and will directly express my views.
1. There have been more rebounds, from 53 to 68, BTC has rebounded nearly 30%. Technically, it has entered the strong pressure range, and the pullback is also normal.
2. The U.S. stock market fell. In fact, the U.S. stock market has been falling recently, and the correction is not small. However, the crypto market did not follow the decline of the U.S. stock market in the past few days because of the previous oversold and the positive situation of Trump's election. With the arrival of the earnings season, Tesla, ASML and other companies performed below expectations and their stock prices plummeted, driving the U.S. stock market index to fall, and the currency market could not hold up and was driven to pull back.
3. Changes in the election situation. Previously, Trump's popularity increased due to the shooting incident. Trump and the Republican Party are relatively friendly to BTC and cryptocurrencies. After Biden announced his withdrawal from the election due to pressure from the Democratic Party, the new candidate Harris has been ahead of Trump in recent polls. Of course, support rate does not mean anything, and the final election is still decided by voting. It is expected that the repeated changes in the election situation will continue to affect the market.
4. The risk of recession is greater. I have published many articles on the issue of recession, so I will not list the data in detail here. Whether it is the unemployment rate, unemployment benefit application data, the inverted yield curve of long-term and short-term Treasury bonds, the SAM index and other indicators, or the continuously revised employment data, the decline in commodity prices, all indicate the slowdown of economic activities and the increase in the risk of recession.
As for the comparison between ETH ETF and BTC ETF, both of them fell first and then rose. I think it is not unreasonable, but it is more about the turnover of ETH itself. It can be seen that ETH is relatively weak compared with other currencies in the past two days. Maybe after the turnover is completed, ETH will make up for the increase in exchange rate. But it may not be the real culprit for the decline of the market, and its influence cannot be compared with BTC.
Although the crypto market has its own internal cycles and narratives, it generally follows the U.S. stock market cycle. To put it simply, once the U.S. stock market collapses, the crypto market will not be the only one that is doing well.
It is still unclear whether the current decline in the U.S. stock market is a large-scale peak or a short-term correction, but I believe that as the economic environment worsens, once a recession is confirmed or a crisis breaks out, the adjustment of the U.S. stock market will not be small, and the crypto market will surely plummet. I think this turning point is likely to be in the fourth quarter of this year or the beginning of 25 years. Don't be overwhelmed by the FOMO sentiment of BTC 150,000, and stay vigilant.
