Gold prices have performed well this year and have climbed to record highs, which is unusual in a U.S. presidential election year, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the World Gold Council.

Juan Carlos Artigas, global head of research at the World Gold Council, said that historically, U.S. presidential elections have not had a direct, immediate impact on gold's performance. However, this election will take place in an environment where voters (in the United States and abroad) are increasingly polarized and geopolitical risks have risen significantly.

“This could encourage investors to seek safe-haven assets, such as gold, to help them manage portfolio risk,” he said.

According to Dow Jones Market Data, before this year, gold hit an all-time intraday high in December 2023. Before that, gold also hit an intraday high of $2,089.20 on August 7, 2020. At that time, Trump was still the President of the United States, and it was less than three months before Biden eventually won the presidential election.

In the U.S. trading on Wednesday, spot gold returned to the $2,430 mark, up more than $20 from its intraday low.

Deviation from the norm

Gold’s strong performance this year appears to be a deviation from historical patterns in presidential election years. Gold tends to underperform its long-term average around U.S. presidential elections, though not particularly consistently, according to a report titled “Votes and Bullion” released Wednesday by the World Gold Council.

The report shows that gold performs slightly better in the six months before a Republican president is elected, then remains flat after the election. Gold tends to underperform before a Democratic president is elected, then performs slightly below its long-term average in the six months after the election.

Compared to its long-term average, gold appears to perform slightly better in the first six months of a Republican presidential win

Bar and Coin Demand

Meanwhile, analysis by the World Gold Council shows that U.S. demand for gold bars and coins has "increased significantly" under a Democratic president. However, the association acknowledged that this observation alone is "not sufficient to determine the direction of gold on its own," especially given that the results were not reflected in U.S. gold ETF demand or Comex futures positions.

The World Gold Council said U.S. Mint gold coin sales tend to surge in anticipation of a Democratic victory.

The average number of ounces sold to authorized purchasers through the Mint is about 60,800 ounces. The Mint sells gold coins to official distributors such as wholesalers and financial institutions, not directly to the public.

Over the past 37 years, the Mint’s total gold sales to authorized purchasers in election months when Democrats won have averaged 86,400 ounces, compared with 71,000 ounces in Republican-victorious months.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests that retail buyers of gold bars and coins may lean Republican, which could partially explain the increase in demand around elections, especially when the Democrats win,” the report said.

This pattern continued after the election month, with gold sales averaging about 79,000 ounces per month in the 13 months following a Democratic victory, compared with just 32,500 ounces per month following a Republican victory.

During election seasons when Democrats win, demand for gold bars and coins averages about 25 tonnes. That's up from 12 tonnes during the same period when Republicans win, the World Gold Council said. In the following four quarters, when Democrats control the White House, demand averages about 26 tonnes, compared with 7 tonnes when Republicans are in office.

The findings “suggest that physical gold demand tends to increase during Democratic administrations, whether due to demographics, political affiliation or broader economic concerns,” the report said.

However, the firm said this did not hold true for other areas of investment demand. The report highlighted that these results did not hold true when it came to U.S. gold ETF demand or Comex futures positions.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council said that partisanship has "no consistent impact" on gold prices during the U.S. election. Instead, any president's domestic and foreign economic policies are more relevant to the price of financial assets, including gold.

That said, this election year is a bit unique. In addition to seeing how gold has performed during elections in the past, this time "we have the added advantage of knowing how gold performed during the previous Trump administration," the World Gold Council said in its report.

Additionally, although Biden has dropped out of the race, gold’s performance during his presidency can be analyzed, assuming his policies will “continue” under a potential new Democratic administration, the report said, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading the race.

Artigas of the World Gold Council said gold has performed well during the previous Trump administration and so far during the Biden administration. “This is partly due to the indirect impact of some of the economic and fiscal policies of both presidents, but also partly due to other independent global factors,” he said.

“Whether Trump or Harris wins, the current geopolitical environment, coupled with the impact of lower developed market interest rates, is likely to continue to support gold’s performance,” Artigas said.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data