Mini Program: Daily Cryptocurrency Dynamics Summary
1. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on illegal cryptocurrency financing, but may encounter obstacles in the Senate
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Cryptocurrency Illegal Financing Act. The bill, proposed by Congressman Zach Nunn, aims to establish a federal working group to conduct an in-depth study of the use of cryptocurrencies in terrorist financing and money laundering, and to make recommendations on how to solve this problem. The group will include people from the crypto industry. In a speech in the House of Representatives, Nunn called the legislation "critical to strengthening America's national security, protecting our digital assets, and ensuring that the next generation of financial and Internet technologies are established in the United States." But the bill is not expected to be passed in the Senate.
2. Former Wall Street trader: Ethereum’s “most obvious bullish trend” will appear in the second half of 2024
According to Cointelegraph, Vivek Raman, managing director of BitOoda Crypto Investment Bank and former Wall Street bond trader, said that the second half of 2024 may be the most bullish period for Ethereum. This is because the launch of the Ethereum ETF will solve most of the risks associated with Ethereum. Raman wrote in the X post on July 22: "In retrospect, the second half of 2024 will be the most obvious bullish time for the Ethereum ecosystem in recent years. Starting this week, the three major headwinds that hindered the development of ETH will become tailwinds." The launch of the first Ethereum ETF will release new capital from institutional and retail investors for the cryptocurrency industry. This is mainly because the ETF will provide more regulatory transparency for Ethereum and end the current "regulatory purgatory." According to Raman: "Retail investors only want to invest passively, and institutions only want to invest after the regulation is clear. The ETH ETF will release new capital inflows from both in one fell swoop." Raman also added that the Ethereum ETF may also mean the end of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s "regulatory persecution against ETH", which may herald more innovation in the broader Ethereum ecosystem.
3. JPMorgan Chase: The short-term rebound in the crypto market may only be temporary
According to CoinDesk, JPMorgan said in a research report last week that any rebound in the cryptocurrency market in the short term is likely to be tactical rather than the start of a new long-term bullish trend. This is because the price of Bitcoin is currently too high relative to its production cost of $43,000, and is also too high relative to its volatility-adjusted gold price of $53,000. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,220. JPMorgan noted that the momentum of Bitcoin futures has been weak in recent weeks due to the liquidation of BTC by Gemini's creditors, Mt.Gox's creditors, and the German government. The liquidation is expected to subside this month, and the bank will continue to seek a rebound in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures positions in August.
4. Swan will shut down its Bitcoin mining business and cancel its IPO plans
According to The Block, Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan, a California-based Bitcoin-dedicated investment platform, announced that the company will shut down its mining operations and cancel its listing plans. In addition, the company has laid off some employees in "multiple functional departments", the exact number of which is unknown. Swan provides Bitcoin asset management and financial advisory services. The company's mining division began operations in July 2023, raised at least $100 million from institutional investors in January this year, and plans to build mining farms overseas. The company originally planned to go public before the end of this year. Klippsten said: "Swan is unlikely to continue our managed mining business in the near future. Since we cannot generate significant short-term revenue from the managed mining division, we will cancel our recent IPO plans."
5. US Ethereum spot ETF officially approved
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted that the U.S. SEC has officially approved the Ethereum spot ETF. Form 424(b) is being submitted, which is the final step, meaning everything is ready and trading will start at 9:30 a.m. EST on Tuesday (9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight). Approved Ethereum spot ETFs include 21Shares, Bitwise, BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Invesco Galaxy, Grayscale Ethereum Trust and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust. Next, issuers can decide to introduce pledges in their Ethereum spot ETFs, but this requires approval from the U.S. SEC. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said, "I think it's just a matter of when, not if. We just need to figure out when that is."
6. Crypto exchange HKX announced its decision to close its Hong Kong business and reminded users to withdraw their assets as soon as possible
According to Finance Feeds, the crypto exchange HKX has decided to shut down its operations in Hong Kong. With no plans to restart services or reapply for a license, the HKX management team announced the decision to cease operations and advised existing users to withdraw their crypto assets as soon as possible.
7. Analyst: Bitcoin will benefit from the "Trump trade" before the US election in November
According to the ZeroCap cryptocurrency market report on Monday, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from the "Trump deal" in the next 105 days before the November election. This digital asset and certain stocks may be boosted by the expectation of Donald Trump's victory. ZeroCap analysts said: "The 'Trump deal' has become the main catalyst for Bitcoin to continue to rise, and investors have bought energy, banks and Bitcoin. Biden's withdrawal from the campaign and support for Harris increased Trump's chances of winning."
8. A US cryptocurrency advocacy group urged Harris to take a forward-looking attitude towards digital assets
According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, the cryptocurrency advocacy organization The Digital Chamber has sent a letter to U.S. Vice President Harris, urging her to take a forward-looking attitude towards digital assets. The letter calls on her to include pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric in the Democratic Party platform, choose a cryptocurrency-friendly running mate, and begin engaging with industry leaders. The Digital Chamber wrote in the letter: "We hope that under your leadership, the Democratic Party will shift to a more supportive attitude toward digital assets, consistent with the wishes of millions of Americans who believe in the transformative power of this technology."
9. Bernstein: The market has not yet digested the impact of a positive shift in crypto regulatory policy brought about by Trump's possible victory
According to The Block, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said that if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, the market has not yet priced in a possible positive shift in cryptocurrency regulatory policy. Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a report to clients on Monday that the price of Bitcoin has responded positively to the increased probability of Republican victory. Before Trump's Bitcoin 2024 speech in Nashville on July 27, the market was confident in his support for cryptocurrency, and there was great potential for institutional investors to allocate cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency stocks. Analysts said that the price of Bitcoin has responded positively to the increased odds of the Republican Party winning, which is confident in Trump's support for cryptocurrency.
10. Analyst: Ethereum may face selling pressure after ETF listing due to surge in implied volatility
According to The Block, derivatives market participants expect Ethereum volatility to be high this week as the spot Ethereum ETF will begin trading on Tuesday - one analyst predicts that Ethereum may see selling pressure on the day the spot Ethereum ETF is launched, followed by a gradual recovery in price. On Friday, the Chicago Board Options Exchange confirmed that several spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds from fund managers such as Fidelity, Franklin Templeton and VanEck will begin trading on Tuesday, July 23. In view of this, Ethereum options open interest reflects the market's expectation that the price volatility of the digital asset will rise. For example, according to Deribit data, the implied volatility of Ethereum options has risen from 56% to 70% in the past week. According to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier, Ethereum prices may fall immediately after the spot Ethereum ETF trading begins. Fournier said: "Ethereum may face huge selling pressure at the beginning of this week, and the launch of the ETF may not immediately offset this pressure." This prediction is consistent with the distribution of open interest contracts for front-end Ethereum options. According to Deribit data, the ratio of put options to call options has soared to 1.45. This shows that there are more put options than call options, suggesting that traders expect an immediate drop or they are looking to hedge against a price drop. In the long term, Fournier expects the price of Ethereum to fall to between $2,800 and $3,100 before rebounding to around $4,000, driven by the gradual growth in demand for spot exchange-traded funds.
11. Ethereum celebrates its 10th birthday, and ETH/BTC has increased more than 100 times in the past decade
Justin Drake, an official researcher of the Ethereum Foundation, said on the X platform that today is the tenth birthday of Ethereum. On July 22, 2014, Ethereum officially launched IC0. The fundraising price that year was 1 BTC for 2,000 ETH, without permission, VC, or lock-up. Ten years later, 1 BTC can be exchanged for less than 20 ETH, which means that ETH has increased more than 100 times relative to BTC in the past decade.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
