Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Wenser (@wenser2010)
At 2 a.m. today, Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Perhaps affected by this, the crypto market "slipped", with Bitcoin falling to around $65,700 and Ethereum falling to around $3,400, but then quickly rebounded. For details, see the market analysis "3-minute quick view of the market outlook: the bottom is over, and the rise has become inevitable?". Since then, Biden has supported Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Odaily Planet Daily will interpret and analyze the impact of this incident on the crypto industry in this article.
Cryptocurrency impact: Tokens mixed
In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum being affected by news related to the US election, many related tokens, especially Meme coins, have also been affected to varying degrees in the short term, including:
BODEN: Down more than 110 times from its peak
On-chain data shows that Biden's Solana ecosystem meme token BODEN (as opposed to Trump's meme coin TREMP) fell by about 63% in 4 hours after Biden announced his withdrawal from the election. Currently, its price has fallen to around US$0.0094. Compared with the high price of US$1.08 in early April, the current decline has exceeded 110 times. The current market value of the project is US$6.4 million.
On-chain data
TREMP: Prices once soared by more than 30%
Compared with BODEN, Solana Ecosystem Meme Coin TREMP once soared from $0.45 to nearly $0.6 after Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the election, with an increase of more than 33.3% in 1 hour. At present, the price of TREMP is stable at around $0.45, which is only about 75% lower than the high of $1.66 in early June. The current market value of the project is $45.2 million.
On-chain data
KAMA: The increase once exceeded 3 times, but has now fallen back
KAMA, the meme coin with the same name as current Vice President Kamala Harris, who was supported by Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, soared from around US$0.01 to US$0.03 after Biden announced his withdrawal from the election, and then fluctuated downward. The current price is stable at around US$0.016. The project's market value has increased 10 times compared to the end of June and is currently about US$16.8 million.
On-chain data
OBEMA: The increase once exceeded 276%
OBAMA, the meme coin of the same name as Michelle Obama, wife of former US President Barack Obama, another potential candidate of the Democratic Party, also performed well. After the announcement of Biden's withdrawal from the election, the price rose from $0.003 to over $0.008, an increase of 276% in 1 hour. Although it subsequently fell back to below $0.003, it has now stabilized at around $0.0074, and the project market value is around $7.4 million.
On-chain data
Political candidates’ influence: Democratic election situation is not optimistic, but crypto-friendly may be a foregone conclusion
After Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, the Democratic presidential candidate remained undecided.
And according to RNC Research, despite Biden's endorsement, Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett said she has "no confidence at all" that Kamala Harris can win the election because "privately" Democrats think "it can't be her."
But policy group CIFonX said Biden's withdrawal provides an opportunity for the Democratic Party to re-examine its cryptocurrency policy, and the Democratic Party may attract voters by changing its cryptocurrency policy. Chervinsky, chief legal officer of crypto investment company Variant Fund, has criticized the Biden administration's hostility to cryptocurrencies and pointed out that Trump is actively seeking crypto votes, promising to end "Biden's war on cryptocurrencies."
In addition, according to a report released by crypto research agency 10x Research, with Biden's withdrawal from the election, a crypto-friendly government will take over the White House. Historically, this means that the SEC chairman resigns when a new government is elected. Although SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's term will end on June 5, 2026, he may also resign in January or February 2025.
In addition, according to media reports, in regional political elections, the crypto political action committee (PAC) Protect Progress has invested more than $1.3 million to support Democratic candidate Yassamin Ansari's campaign for the Arizona Third District Congressional seat. According to its campaign website, Ansari supports "leading blockchain and crypto innovation" and has previously completed Coinbase's Stand With Crypto questionnaire, indicating that if elected to Congress, he will promote legislation supporting cryptocurrencies.
After Trump won widespread support from the cryptocurrency industry through frequent speaking out and his attendance at a Bitcoin conference in Tennessee this month, the Democratic Party's shift toward a crypto-friendly direction seems to be a foregone conclusion, regardless of who will run before the election dust settles.
Long-term impact on the crypto industry: Say goodbye to high-pressure regulation and enter the "crypto-friendly honeymoon period"
Earlier news, the crypto asset accounting standard SAB 121, which is seen as a tool for the SEC to suppress digital assets, was passed. Subsequently, a resolution proposed to overturn the standard, but was vetoed by Biden. He said in an official statement on May 31: "Overturning the considered judgment of SEC staff in this way may undermine the SEC's broader authority in accounting practices. My government will not support measures that endanger the well-being of consumers and investors."
Although a majority of members of the U.S. House of Representatives recently voted against President Biden's support for the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SAB 121) crypto accounting policy, the standard is still in effect because it did not reach the two-thirds vote required to overturn the veto. Negotiations between the SEC and the banking industry and the Republican push to revoke this standard cannot change this reality.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, known as the "Crypto Mom," also condemned this and criticized her agency's regulatory approach. It is worth mentioning that as early as June 4, 2020, Trump nominated her to continue for a second term. In this regard, she can be said to be one of the "Trump faction." Previously, she also expressed dissatisfaction with the SEC's external response. She said, "When individuals and entities seek feedback, concerns and questions from the SEC, they often encounter "silent responses." The root of the problem is that the SEC does not encourage staff to provide more than shrugs, silence, slow walks, and sighs. The high-level culture of this agency has changed, which has led to changes in the way the entire agency interacts with the public."
In a recent response to the Bank of England's digital securities sandbox consultation document, Hester Peirce also expressed her preference for being a "beach regulator" rather than a "sandbox regulator" for digital securities. As a regulator, the focus is not on coming up with ideas on how innovation can improve financial markets, but on ensuring that innovators can try to put their ideas into practice.
This was also verified again in a recent interview with Coinage about the "Future Possibility of Ethereum ETF Staking" - when asked "What is the highest priority after becoming the chairman of the SEC", she responded that it should be "ensuring the vitality of the industry, allowing investors to make their own decisions, and ensuring that we do not set unnecessary obstacles in rulemaking."
It can be seen that with the gradual advancement of the US election and the gradual launch of Ethereum spot ETF trading, the high-pressure regulatory situation that the SEC has previously conveyed to the cryptocurrency industry will be greatly improved.
After crypto industry professionals including Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey, the Winklevoss brothers, founders of crypto exchange Gemini and Winklevoss Capital Management, Jesse Powell, co-founder of crypto exchange Kraken, Stuart Alderoty, chief legal officer of Ripple, Michael Belshe, CEO of BitGo, Ryan Selkis, founder and former CEO of Messari, as well as investment industry professionals including Tesla founder Elon Musk, former Tesla board member, Valor Equity partner and CEO Antonio Gracias, Sequoia Capital partner Douglas Leone and investor Shaun Maguire, VC company Founders Fund co-founder Kenneth Howery, and Palantir Technologies co-founder Joe Lonsdale have all given their strong support in real money to Trump, if he is successfully elected as the new US president, the crypto industry and the US government may change the previous tense situation and enter a "crypto-friendly honeymoon period."
