Looking at Coinbase's report, I like to read some reports from professional organizations. Sometimes I can find resonance in their views. Of course, there are occasionally some views that I don't agree with. Coinbase first said that with the easing of Bitcoin's oversupply and changes in the US political landscape, Bitcoin caught up with the sharp depreciation of the US dollar in July. The US dollar index fell by more than 2% this month. Bitcoin is usually negatively correlated with the US dollar index, and it tends to benefit from a weaker US dollar, but MT Gox's gradual repayment of creditors is still a source of pressure. Since creditors may have some selling actions after receiving payments one after another, this process is linear and will bring more volatility to Bitcoin. This is consistent with base's weekly report last week, that is, before the end of the third quarter of 2024, Bitcoin's short-term top may be US$73,000, and it tends to fluctuate within a certain range. The market may begin to recover in late September or early October. The sell-off caused by the Mtgox repayment action is gradual and orderly. At the same time, the US election will become an important driving force for the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2024. After Trump's assassination attempt last weekend, Bitcoin received a specific catalyst boost because Trump's chances of being elected president increased. Next week, from July 25 to July 27, Trump will attend the Bitcoin 2024 conference and give a speech. The Republican nominee for vice president is also a potential supporter of cryptocurrency. In 2022, the vice presidential candidate disclosed that he owns $100,000 to $250,000 worth of Bitcoin. If they are successfully elected to the presidential election, it will become a direct catalyst for the bull market.
