I need to add something about next week’s crypto conference. This is not the first time it has been held, and there has always been a popular anecdote in the currency circle - there will be a drop in the summit, so will this conference follow the convention?
1. The crypto conference coincides with the week when ETH ETF was approved. If the economic data is positive, it will bring more possibilities for a rate cut in September. Then the selling at the conference may be eaten up by buying. This is one of the possibilities.
2. The reason why the market always falls after every conference is that the market hypes up the expectations and then sells the news after the expectations are fulfilled. This situation is not only in crypto, but also in many traditional financial markets. The market always falls after every conference is not from the crypto field, but also in the traditional securities market. This represents an operating cycle formed by the emergence of expectations → speculation of expectations → fulfillment of expectations in the market operation, and most of the cases are like this.
3. Conventional conferences often throw out a lot of gimmicky content before the conference, and then the market hypes it up, which leads to the conference starting and the gimmick falling. When people find out that the so-called gimmick is just a gimmick, there will be a certain amount of selling pressure in the market. This is a common problem of overvaluation of hype expectations.
4. Political factors. Trump’s participation in the conference, as a former US president and current presidential candidate who is more supportive of encryption, has a very high probability of winning the election. The market has already completed a hype about Trump’s expectations. Trump’s participation in the conference this time is also due to political factors, which may change the possibility of a decline in the market at every meeting.
5. Trump himself. The reason why Trump was able to win the election is not only because of his unique Trump economy which won him widespread support in the United States, but also because of his support for the encryption field which won him a lot of funds and support. Participating in the encryption conference is an encryption stage that has attracted global attention. For Trump, who has an excellent performing personality, I believe he will not miss this opportunity.
As for Trump himself, he dares to speak out. How did he get the title of "King of Understanding"? Most of the time, he got the title of "King of Understanding" because he dares to speak out and speak publicly.
Therefore, I have reason to suspect that Trump may speak more boldly at this crypto conference, so that he can gain more campaign support through this global focus stage. As for whether Trump dares to say it or not, it is not the focus of current concern. The crypto market does not need to be in the future, but needs the current hype expectations. Therefore, Trump's courage to say it is enough to ignite the market. (It depends on what Trump expresses)
To sum up, I personally think that there is a certain basis for judging that there will be a fall after every conference. However, because of the unstable and bold factor of Trump involved in this conference, I personally feel that the judgment that there will be a fall after every conference may not be valid.
