#BTC /USDT Let's consider a complete analysis of the current situation:
1. Forecast of price movements (short term, medium term)
Short term forecast:
The price is within the descending channel. In the near future, fluctuations between the support and resistance levels of the channel are possible. If resistance is broken, growth will continue.
Mid-term forecast:
If the price is able to overcome the upper boundary of the downward channel and consolidate higher, this may signal the beginning of an uptrend. Otherwise, the downward movement will continue.
2. Support and resistance levels
Support Levels:
$63,000 - lower boundary of the downward channel
$58,000 - EMA200 level (red line)
Resistance levels:
$66,000 - the upper limit of the downward channel
$70,000 - previous resistance level
3. Possible entry, exit, stop loss points for a long position
Entry: Upon breakout and consolidation above the $66,000 level
Exit: Level $70,000 or higher, depending on trend development
Stop loss: Level $63,000 (below the lower border of the channel)
4. Possible entry, exit, stop loss points for short positions
Entry: Upon a rollback from the $66,000 level or upon a breakdown of the $63,000 level downwards
Exit: Level $58,000 or lower, depending on trend development
Stop loss: Level $66,000 (above the upper border of the channel)
5. Let’s consider the long and short scenarios, and give an assessment of which scenario is more likely based on 100%
Long scenario:
Breakout of the $66,000 level and consolidation above. Probability: 40%
Short scenario:
A rollback from the $66,000 level or a breakdown of $63,000 downwards. Probability: 60%
Additional factors to assess the likelihood of a scenario:
Ancored RSI Volume Profile Indicator: Shows overbought conditions above 70.
Ichimoku Cloud indicator: The cloud is above the price, indicating the possibility of a downtrend.
Parabolic SAR indicator: The dots are above the price, which confirms the downward trend.
EMA indicator: EMA200 (red line) is above the current price, indicating a downward trend.
YK Round Levels Indicator: The $70,000 level can act as strong resistance.
RSI indicator: The RSI value is close to 60, which indicates a neutral market condition.
On-chain data:
Exchange reserve: Decrease over the last 7 days.
Net deposits on exchanges: Decline over the last 7 days.
Capital inflow: Outflow predominates over the last 7 days.
Inflow of large holders: The inflow over the last 7 days prevails.
Growth of active addresses: Stable over the last 7 days.
Growth of new addresses: Slight growth over the last 7 days.
Trading volume: Decrease over the last 7 days.
These data confirm the predominance of the short scenario with a probability of 60%.
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