Data July 18 macroeconomic data interpretation: European interest rates/initial jobless claims/Philadelphia manufacturing index
Although this week's data is considered to have a lower impact on the risk market, we still need to pay attention to it (depending on personal interest, of course).
The main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in the euro area as of July 18, the previous value is 4.25%, the expected value is 4.25%, and the announced value is 4.25%.
The data shows that the ECB will continue to maintain the current interest rate this month. This is the interest rate situation after the ECB's first rate cut. If the market's original expectation of quarterly rate cuts is followed, after the June rate cut, the next ECB rate cut is most likely to be in September.
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Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 13 (10,000 people) Previous value 22.3 (22.2 before revision) Expected 23 Announced 24.3
The data is a statistical data on the number of initial unemployment claims since July 13 last week, which measures the future situation of the U.S. labor market. The data shows that the number of unemployment claims last week increased the most since May, and the employment labor market is cooling further. This data will continue to consolidate the expectation of a rate cut in September, but since the expectation of a rate cut in September is already very high and the market is already trading on the expectation of a rate cut, the data did not cause a large market fluctuation.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July, previous value 1.3, expected 2.9, published value 13.9
This is a surprising set of data, which was compiled and released by the Federal Bank of Philadelphia. The data showed a rapid increase in the manufacturing data in the region. Moreover, this increase can be seen very intuitively and obviously in the data, indicating that the manufacturing industry in the region is recovering rapidly.
The areas for Philadelphia federal data statistics are from Pennsylvania, Delaware and southern New Jersey. These areas were once important industrial areas in the industrial capitalization of the United States in the mid-20th century. Although the US economy later transformed into a financial capital economy, which led to a decline in the region's industry, it still retained a good industrial foundation. The current rapid recovery of the region's industrial index may mean that the US industrial system is also recovering at an accelerated pace. This is also the result Powell wants to see. Although it will bring pressure on regional inflation in the short term, the inflation brought by manufacturing is often benign.
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Judging from today's overall data, the European Central Bank continued to maintain interest rates within expectations, but the unexpected increase in weekly unemployment continued to consolidate expectations of rate cuts, although it still did not bring any volatility to the market. The rapid growth of the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index also showed that the industrial recovery that Powell hoped for was underway, which would have a partial superposition effect on the positive economic expectations of the United States and Trump.
