On the afternoon of the 13th, Eastern Time, Trump was stabbed by a gunman at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, USA, and his right ear was injured. The global capital market quickly became agitated by this incident, and people flocked to safe-haven assets. Among them, it was noteworthy that the price of Bitcoin also rebounded sharply, returning to above US$65,000, sweeping away the haze brought about by the Mt.Gox compensation crisis and the German government's market crash. Does this mean that the market has bottomed out and a bull market is about to begin?
After the assassination, is Trump sure to win the White House?
Trump has repeatedly stressed his support for cryptocurrency assets and mining. If he successfully wins the US election, it will inevitably inject great confidence into the market. Trump's poll approval rating before the attack was ahead of Biden. According to Bloomberg's new forecast of the US election trend after the attack, Trump's chances of winning the election have increased rapidly, approaching 70%. On the political betting website Poly market, Trump's chances of winning the presidential election have also risen rapidly to 70%, far ahead of Biden. From the perspective of US election history, presidential candidates who have been assassinated or their political parties have a high probability of winning the election. After former President Reagan was assassinated in 1981, his approval rating rose sharply, and many voters did praise Trump's heroic performance during the assassination on social media. However, after the frenzy faded, whether the assassination can completely change the pattern of the US election remains to be discussed. According to the latest poll on the assassination released today, Trump's approval rating is 46%, only one percentage point higher than Biden, which shows that the battle between the two is still very stalemate. There are still 4-5 months before the election, and everything is possible.
As global capital markets fluctuate, will cryptocurrencies become new safe-haven assets?
After Trump's assassination, the global capital market began to further bet on the "Trump deal", that is, the rise in US bond interest rates and the rise of "Trump stocks" such as energy, steel, and banks. Analysts predicted that Trump would implement tax cuts after taking office, and continue to expand deficits, expand inflation, and maintain economic growth, which put pressure on the long-term bond market. After the assassination, long-term bonds except for 2-year bonds rose, and the 2-year/30-year bond yield curve ended its long-term inversion, and the degree of inversion of 2-year/10-year bonds also narrowed significantly. At the same time, global capital poured into safe-haven assets, and analysts predicted that gold would hit a record high. Since Trump was assassinated on Saturday local time, only the cryptocurrency market, which was trading non-stop, was still publicly traded. Bitcoin began to rise immediately. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at trader Capital.com, said that after the shooting, some investors' funds flowed into Bitcoin and gold. "This incident marks a turning point in American political norms. The United States is facing an emergency of greater political violence. For the market, this means risk-averse trading, which may be more inclined to non-traditional risk aversion." According to historical data, Bitcoin has performed relatively well under risk-averse market sentiment. For example, when the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out, Bitcoin first fell sharply, then quickly rebounded and soared. As more and more pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and other institutions that originally focused on traditional financial fields have successively invested in cryptocurrencies, it has shown that the market is gradually recognizing the unique risk-averse properties of cryptocurrencies.
After Trump wins the election, will Bitcoin break the $100,000 mark?
Trump has previously made many statements in support of cryptocurrencies, and the Republican Party’s latest draft platform explicitly proposes to “end the Democratic Party’s suppression of cryptocurrencies,” oppose central bank digital currencies, oppose strong regulation, and defend the right to cryptocurrency mining, which may directly change the existing cryptocurrency market landscape.
And after the assassination, Trump still plans to attend the 2024 Bitcoin Conference held from the 25th to the 27th of this month. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that given Trump's friendly attitude towards Bitcoin regulation and mining, Bitcoin will have the potential to rise to $100,000 after Trump's election, and is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of next year. In addition, Trump's economic policy after taking office, namely "Trump Economics", is very likely to be similar to that of his previous term, involving tax cuts and interest rate cuts, and pushing the dollar to weaken, which will further expand the fiscal deficit, push up inflation, and drive up the prices of commodities such as gold and oil. It was during Trump's last term that Bitcoin rose from $400 to $20,000. However, it is worth worrying that the trend of US stocks is still unclear. Trump's conservative tariff and immigration policies may drag down the US economy, burst the bubble of the US stock market, and cause the US economy to fall into crisis.
So do you think it is possible for Bitcoin to break through the 100,000 mark? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss.
That’s all for today’s sharing. If you are a newbie who has just entered the market, I hope we can move forward together. We don’t make a profit and we don’t charge any fees. We just want to build a place where everyone can communicate. It’s not scary if you don’t get on the bus. What’s scary is that you keep watching the bus moving forward and don’t dare to get on the bus. You go to work for a living, and only with a good investment philosophy can you pay for your dreams.
#山寨季何时到来？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？
