Selling pressure analysis
Mentougou creditors will sell some BTC, but not all.
According to the cost calculation, the BTC price was $485 when Mentougou went bankrupt, an increase of 120 times; the amount of BTC paid was about 20% of the original holdings, and the profit was about 24 times. Even if the debt acquisition, there is more than 10 times the profit, the debt acquisition agency may hold more BTC, and will not sell all of it if it is optimistic about BTC in the long term. Picture
During the long litigation process, the debt trading market gave paper hand creditors ample exit opportunities. Those who are willing to buy debts are mostly long-term holders of BTC.
Assuming that the proportion of accepting early lump-sum repayment is 75%, the total number of BTC repaid is 105,750, with a discount of 11%, and the actual BTC used for repayment is 94,117; assuming a selling ratio of 30%, 50%, and 70%, and a selling time of 1 to 3 months, the number of sales under different circumstances can be calculated.
If the compensation in Mentougou is sold out within a month, the selling pressure faced by the market will be similar to the German government's selling, with the same amount and time. The current demand for ETFs cannot provide sufficient support, and the price of BTC may fall further.
If the compensation lasts for 2-3 months, the amount of BTC entering the market every day will not be particularly large, and it will not cause a one-time drop. However, due to the expected selling pressure, there may be a period of volatility, and the selling will be digested through volatility.
To understand specific opportunities and specific decisions, please check the homepage clipping
