TechFlow reported on July 15 that according to Jinshi Data, Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the Fed had good reasons to cut interest rates at the July meeting, but did not change his forecast that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September. The latest unemployment and inflation data show that a federal funds rate of 4% is appropriate, while it is currently 5.25%-5.5%. Therefore, it is expected that rate cuts will begin soon.

The arguments for a July rate cut include the volatility of monthly inflation, which could make a September rate cut difficult to explain, and the Fed's incentive to avoid cutting rates in the final two months of the presidential campaign. While this does not rule out a September rate cut, July is a more appropriate time.