Interest rate cuts may be imminent, are you ready?

Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a public speech in the early hours of Tuesday, and the market is focused on whether he will release interest rate cut signals in response to slowing inflation.

Policymakers entered a silent period before the July interest rate meeting, but are expected to give subtle hints about the prospects of interest rate cuts at the last minute.

As inflation approaches the 2% target, the market is worried about the resilience of the labor market. The Fed may use this window to indicate the trend of interest rate cuts, or to clarify that the current data is not enough to support the shift of loose policies.

Citi predicts that there will be interest rate cut signals in July, and if the economy meets expectations, there may be interest rate cuts in September.

CME data shows that weak inflation in June has pushed up expectations for interest rate cuts in September to more than 90%, and large financial institutions have adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts.

Although the market does not expect a rate cut this month, it believes that the inflation report may prompt the Fed to soften its stance in its policy statement, paving the way for a rate cut in September.

The latest PPI data shows that price pressures in areas such as medical care have eased, adding to the easing policy.

Powell previously emphasized that "more good data" will promote interest rate cuts, and recent data has led economists to predict that the PCE price index in June may fall below 2.5%.

This week, several senior Fed officials will speak, among which Waller's position is particularly critical. As a representative of the hawks, his recent research pointed out that the weakening labor market may accelerate the rise in unemployment, and his speech on Wednesday will reveal his latest assessment of the conditions for interest rate cuts.

Although the labor market has cooled by reducing job vacancies, the unemployment rate has still climbed to 4.1%. Waller previously asked for more inflation data to support interest rate cuts, and he will have the opportunity to update his views this week.

As the PCE price index continues to decline, the Fed may adjust the wording of "high inflation" to open the door to interest rate cuts.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also said that improved inflation data will increase confidence in interest rate cuts.

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