Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author: Wenser (@wenser2010)
After the Mt.Gox creditor compensation crisis and the German government's BTC shipments, the market has rebounded sharply in the past two days. The BTC price has returned to above $62,500, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%; the ETH price has exceeded $3,300, with a 24-hour increase of more than 4%. This rebound may be affected by the assassination of Trump yesterday and his safe escape.
Does this round of market rebound mean that the market has bottomed out? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze the market outlook in this article.
The biggest variable: Trump's assassination becomes a new hot spot for encryption
On July 14, 78-year-old Trump was stabbed at a short distance at an offline campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Although the bullet once passed by Trump's ear, fortunately only the right ear was injured; when leaving the venue under the protection of agents and security personnel, Trump also raised his arms and shouted - it is said that he shouted the slogan "Fight" continuously. As the news continued to spread, the crypto market responded.
Trump chanted slogans after being assassinated
The prediction market was the first to give feedback. Data from the crypto prediction market Polymarket showed that as news of Trump's good condition after the shooting broke, the platform's probability of Trump winning the presidential election has risen to 69%, setting a new record and leading by a clear margin (Biden's probability of winning is only 14%). Influenced by this news, the price of Bitcoin rose by more than 2% yesterday, reaching $59,850 - Trump's previous positive remarks and support for the cryptocurrency industry also laid the groundwork for this market reaction.
About 3 hours after the assassination, CoinGecko market showed that Trump-related Meme coins rose across the board, including:
MAGA (TRUMP) has increased by 30.9% in 24 hours and is currently priced at $8.22;
MAGA Hat has increased by 30.7% in 24 hours and is currently priced at $0.0002376;
TREMP 24H rose by 68% and is now quoted at $0.6482;
Super Trump 24H rose by 43.7% and is now quoted at $0.01241;
BABY TRUMP has risen 20.7% in 24 hours and is currently priced at $0.05508.
As an important influencer in the PolitiFi sector, Trump's every move also caused fluctuations in related tokens. Affected by Trump's attack, the PolitiFi token sector's trading volume exceeded US$300 million in the past 24 hours, reaching US$315,727,766, and the market value of the sector rose by 14%, reaching nearly US$900 million at that time.
As the two most eye-catching sectors this year, Meme Coin and PolitiFi Token also played the role of "barometer" in yesterday's market rebound.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said he saw clients flock to Bitcoin and gold after the Trump shooting. "This news marks a turning point in American political norms and the emergence of greater political violence. For the market, this means safe-haven trading, but more biased towards non-traditional safe-havens."
Market view at a glance: Good news comes faster than most people think
Recently, many research institutions and analysts have expressed different views on the market conditions. The following are some representative views selected by Odaily Planet Daily.
10x Research: Counterpoint or beacon?
On July 9, the well-known research institution 10x Research once again published a market opinion article (for details, see "10x Research points the way again: this time look at 60,000 first, then 50,000"), and stated, "All six applicants for the spot Ethereum ETF have submitted updated S-1 forms, which indicates that the SEC may approve the application soon. In addition, the oversold indicator suggests a short-term reversal, and a small rebound may be expected. Currently, two of the three reversal indicators have turned bullish, and the RSI index is 38%. Short sellers may need to wait until Bitcoin experiences a potential failure in breaking through $60,000-62,000, which may drive prices lower."
On the 10th, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that BTC has the potential to reach $60,000, but this rise will be short-lived. From a technical analysis perspective, the $55,000-56,000 range is forming a foundation, but there will be no tactical bullish counter-trend rebound in the short term.
Subsequently, 10x made statements on the 11th, 12th and today, saying that "the recent rebound in Bitcoin may be due to short covering before the release of CPI. The negative impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on the crypto market under the background of economic weakness cannot be ignored. Bitcoin is expected to experience a larger-scale sell-off in the coming weeks and months."
Whether it is a market counter-indicator or a beacon of encryption, the "effective index rate" of 10x is still exerting its strength.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin whales are building positions
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin whales are currently hoarding Bitcoin at the fastest rate (measured by the 30-day MA moving average) since several local banks collapsed in the United States in April 2023. CryptoQuant analyst Minkyu Woo added: "This shows that the bottoming of Bitcoin may be about to be completed."
But CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also gave a different view, saying that whale users only use a lot of leverage at cyclical bottoms. Ironically, when whales go long, the Bitcoin market becomes over-leveraged and the trend rebounds. It would be great if whale users were over-leveraged, but this is not the case now.
IntoTheBlock: $54,000 may be the bottom
According to IntoTheBlock data, Bitcoin whale addresses increased their holdings by 71,000 BTC, worth approximately $4.3 billion, when the price fell to $54,200 on July 5.
K33 Research: Still facing billions of dollars of selling pressure in the middle of the year
Recently, K33 Research said that the market will have to withstand $4 billion to $7 billion of Bitcoin selling pressure by the middle of this year, which will put pressure on prices.
Matrixport: Bitcoin has become an institutional stage
Matrixport’s latest report pointed out that although Bitcoin has rebounded by more than 300% since the end of 2022, retail participation remains sluggish, the market is dominated by institutional investors, and volatility has dropped to 41%, lower than the 5-year average (60%). As retail participation decreases, Bitcoin is increasingly dominated by institutional investors, resulting in lower volatility. This remarkable shift from retail to institutions was further evidenced by the unwinding of retail positions in South Korea as Bitcoin fell below $60,000. Meanwhile, ETFs continue to see steady inflows. In addition, most of the decline over the past 30 days occurred during Asian trading hours, accounting for -13% of the overall decline (-15%), mainly affected by retail trading activity in South Korea. Google Trends data shows that Bitcoin search trends dropped from 100% in 2017 to 41% in 2024, indicating limited retail interest but increased awareness. The trading volume of Korean exchanges is closely related to the annualized funding rate of Bitcoin. Korean retail investors play an important role in the altcoin market, bringing a large number of leverage opportunities.
Collective Shift: Bitcoin has reached its bottom, and a rise is in sight
加密教育平台 Collective Shift 的创始人 Ben Simpson 表示，比特币的“局部底部”现在已经形成，并认为其现在正走向上升趋势。他认为，比特币价格近期受到了大量“强制抛售”的打击，其中大部分来自德国政府近 30 亿美元的抛售，以及对 Mt.Gox 债权人偿还约 85 亿美元的负面情绪。“总的来说，我只是觉得市场情绪和基本面之间存在很大的不匹配，”展望未来，“未来几周和几个月，比特币的价格将出现几个关键的利好因素，鲍威尔暗示可能很快会降息。我们还看到标准普尔 500 指数创下新高，以及强劲的比特币 ETF 资金回流。”
From the above viewpoints, it is not difficult to see that perhaps this market rebound has also been beyond the expectations of many research institutions and individuals, but the "unexpected good news" comes much faster than expected.
Next focus: policy and news
It is worth noting that a large part of the reason for this market rebound may be due to the rise of "investment risk aversion". In the current volatile world political situation, the turbulence in some regions has exacerbated investors' "risk aversion anxiety". Just like the market performance when the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out a few years ago, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Ethereum first fell sharply, then quickly repaired the price gap and once soared.
Eugene Cheung, head of institutional business at Bybit, said that Bitcoin is unique because it performs well in both risk-on and risk-off market sentiments. Although we currently only have historical data in a risk-on environment, it is enough to prove that Bitcoin has performed better than any other asset in the market. As inflation declines, we believe that funds previously invested in money market funds and short-term bonds may flow back into the market, and it is difficult to deny that the price of Bitcoin will flourish in the future. In fact, as institutions such as traditional finance, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds continue to invest in cryptocurrencies, its investment value has become more obvious. Moreover, given the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an asset, the possibility of reverse price behavior or even investment bubbles in the future is higher.
Therefore, we have reason to believe that the next market trend depends mainly on two aspects: on the one hand, market developments including Ethereum spot ETF and Solana ETF are affected by the policies of relevant US government regulatory departments; on the other hand, it is affected by market news such as Trump’s latest remarks, US presidential election campaign events, and FTX bankruptcy compensation progress.
Summary: Key market factors remain unclear
It is worth mentioning that the Mt.Gox creditor compensation incident that caused market panic has not directly affected the market price. Instead, the German government's "dumping" that had not attracted much attention before caused the market to suffer heavy losses, and Bitcoin fell below US$54,000.
As time goes by, the key factors that can influence market prices are still relatively limited, and the situation is not clear. Therefore, in the short term, we still cannot make a judgment that the market has "fallen to the bottom" or "has no room to fall further". Whether cryptocurrencies can grab the attention of a wider range of people again with the help of Trump's assassination remains an unknown.
After all, according to CryptoQuant statistics, Bitcoin traders are still facing a difficult situation, with a loss rate of only 17%, the lowest level since the FTX collapse. Perhaps the August FTX compensation plan customer vote (the deadline is August 16) will determine whether the market will be dominated by buying or selling in the coming months.
