Trump’s assassination, three stages of U.S. encryption regulatory policy
Several gunshots almost announced the end of the suspense of the U.S. presidential election. This is a moment of political violence and a moment when a "hero" is born. In the crypto world, the sound of gunfire has also become the starting gun for bulls’ counterattack at this moment, and has become a catalyst for market trends.
At 18:11 on July 13, Eastern Time, former US President Trump was shot at a presidential election rally in Pennsylvania. His face was covered with blood and he was immediately protected by the Secret Service. After shouting to the crowd, he was sent to hospital He went to the hospital for treatment and his physical condition was basically fine.
After Trump was shot, he did not leave the venue quickly. Instead, he shouted to supporters at the rally. Under the lens of Pulitzer Prize winner Evan Vucci, Trump holds his fists high, his face covered with blood, and the American flag flying behind his head.
The tragedy and heroism rendered in the picture immediately became a classic. This shocking scene also became a blockbuster picture that major media around the world rushed to reprint. Some people even found that it was surprisingly consistent with the 1803 "Leading the Statue of Liberty", and even more It adds a lot of color to Trump’s image as a fighting hero.
After the news of Trump’s assassination came out, on Polymarket, 70% of the bets on Trump’s election as president had reached 70%, while Biden only had 16%. At the same time, BTC jumped sharply, quickly exceeding 60,000. US dollars.
The impact of politics on the crypto world is more clearly demonstrated at this moment. Although the market believes that Trump has a high probability of being elected and his friendly remarks on cryptocurrency are very conducive to the development of cryptocurrency, however, from a deeper perspective, in the increasingly polarized political struggle and global geopolitical game, Trump’s The assassination may push the already turbulent global political landscape into a more extreme direction.
If we further look back at Trump's past attitude towards cryptocurrencies or see this trend more clearly, we can also get a glimpse of how Trump went from an "anti-crypto president" to a "crypto-friendly president."
1. The Presidential Term 2017-2021: Bash! negative! but allow appropriate regulatory space
When Trump won his first election as President of the United States and during his tenure, Trump himself took a clear stance against cryptocurrencies, and even publicly declared his denial of cryptocurrencies in the media.
However, it was also during Trump’s tenure that various regulations were initially developed.
In July of the year he took office in 2017, the United States launched the "Virtual Currency Business Uniform Supervision Act" which does not have legally enforceable effect. It provides a basic legal framework for the supervision of the business activities of virtual currency exchanges and also provides various states in the United States. Legislative basis; also in December of that year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched Bitcoin futures.
In 2018, the SEC under Trump launched strong supervision of ICOs, including cracking down on Arise Bank, the world’s first crypto bank.
In 2019, he criticized Bitcoin and crypto-assets for the first time on public social media. At the same time, the fiscal budget proposal released the following year disclosed millions of dollars in regulatory enforcement funds for the crypto industry.
Before and after leaving office in 2020-2021, although the Trump administration cabinet nominated a number of crypto-friendly advisers, in its external speeches, it still insisted that "Bitcoin is a scam and called for strengthening the supervision of crypto assets." He also personally declared to the outside world Does not hold cryptocurrency.
2. During the post-presidential period from 2021 to 2023: a turning point, Trump is deeply involved in the NFT craze
The year Trump left office coincided with the rapid growth of NFT issuance. Celebrities from all walks of life began to issue personal NFTs, making a lot of money for a while. Especially Mrs. Trump quickly followed the trend and announced the launch of an NFT platform to issue Trump-related products. NFT may be the personal fate of various celebrities and his wife. In 2022, Trump officially announced the release of his own limited edition NFT.
In 2023, Trump issued two series of NFTs and launched NFT rights, such as Trump dinners, signed souvenirs, etc. There is quite a trend of making his own NFT business bigger and stronger. There is reason to believe that Trump should have made a lot of profits through the NFT market during his leaving office, which to a certain extent also paved the way for his change of attitude in his subsequent presidential campaign.
3. 2024-present: Following the trend of political struggle, he is bound to strive to become a crypto-friendly president.
In 2024, the election year of the US President, the partisanship in the United States is becoming increasingly fierce. Both Trump and Biden are trying their best, even using all possible means, to win the presidency. Cryptocurrency has attracted the attention of younger voters and is becoming more and more common in the United States. It has also been used by Trump as an important means of campaigning.
In May of this year, Trump stated that he would accept cryptocurrency donations and specifically pointed out that "Biden doesn't even know what cryptocurrency is" in order to please voters for their votes and financial support. In addition, Trump also publicly declared that he would ensure the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin in the United States and promised to pardon Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
Trump’s partial support for the original speech is as follows:
Translation: I’m also going to stop Joe Biden’s crusade against cryptocurrencies—we’re going to stop it. I will make sure that the future of cryptocurrency and the future of Bitcoin is in the United States and not driven overseas. I will support the right of cryptocurrency holders to self-custody.
Translation: Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC... We want all remaining Bitcoins to be made in the United States! ! !
Another example of cryptocurrencies becoming an important tool in political battles is the reaction of Trump’s opponent Joe Biden.
On May 9 this year, under the decision of the Biden administration, it announced its veto to repeal the SAB121 bill. This bill is essentially to protect consumers of digital assets.
Biden's rejection sparked a backlash from crypto supporters, forcing Biden to issue a statement that month calling on Congress to establish a "balanced regulatory framework" and begin reaching out to key figures in the cryptocurrency industry. Under Trump's strong overtures towards encryption, Biden had to soften his usual tough stance and instead please voters. After all, this is about the presidency.
4. The future: the interaction between politics and encryption, intensifying political violence, and increasingly compliant crypto assets
Perhaps Trump's various behaviors, as Arthur Hayes criticized, his "sudden concern about cryptocurrency" are not sincere, but just to please the young, politically active and upstart cryptocurrency group, but from the incident of Trump's assassination In itself, when the political struggle escalates to the stage of armed conflicts and assassinations, the hidden crisis of internal division in the United States and social contradictions have increasingly become obvious problems.
Or, in the not-too-distant future, people's concerns about war may become a reality, which will further strengthen the attributes of Bitcoin and the crypto-assets behind it as the world's ultimate safe-haven assets.
The more direct impact is that whether Biden or Trump takes office, they will not be able to ignore the influence of crypto assets and the young people of Generation Z behind them, and compliance may be further accelerated.
After all, as an old man approaching 80 years old, Trump should understand that the world will eventually belong to these young people, and they will lead the beginning of a new era. Whether they like it or not, cryptocurrency has become a trend, and it is better to let it develop in compliance with regulations. Scams are everywhere, and Trump’s high-waving fists and blood are not only a scene worthy of being recorded in the annals of American political history, but may also be a classic footnote for the encryption world to move towards the “Compliance Era”.
This article is reproduced in cooperation with: Shenchao
