Former US president Donald Trump's odds of regaining the White House rose to an all-time high on Saturday after he was injured in a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania, according to traders on Polymarket. .
A Secret Service spokesman said the Republican presidential candidate was "safe" after the shooting, according to The New York Times. The newspaper said a suspected gunman was killed and a spectator was also killed. Photos and videos of a defiant Trump with blood on his face, pumping his fist in the air circulated on social media, following two weeks in which the national conversation focused on weakness and gaffe of his opponent, current President Joe Biden.
The "Yes" stock in Polymarket's contract on whether Trump will win the presidency rose 10 cents after the incident, to 70 cents, meaning the market now sees a 70% chance he will prevail in November. Each share will pay 1 USD if the prediction comes true and 0 if the prediction does not come true. Bets are programmed into a smart contract on the Polygon blockchain and are settled in USDC, a stablecoin or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 for dollars.
The meme token "Polifi" named after Trump also increased sharply. For example, MAGA is up 34% in 24 hours to $8.38, according to CoinGecko data, and satirical TREMP is up 67% to $0.6471.
The CoinDesk 20 index, which represents the overall cryptocurrency market, is up 3.31% in 24 hours. Bitcoin, the oldest and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 3.26% to $59,735.17. Trump expressed wholehearted support for cryptocurrency on the campaign trail, and the Republican Party platform vowed to stop the Biden administration's "crackdown" on the industry.
Polymarket, founded four years ago by Shayne Coplan, has seen boffo trading volumes in 2024 amid political betting enthusiasm ahead of the US election. The US president's winning contract had a total stake of $252 million, a record for the company and for, if not all, cryptocurrency-based prediction markets. prediction market.
PredictIt, an older, traditional betting site where bets are settled in fiat currency, showed a similar trend, with Trump's stock rising from 59 cents before the shooting to 66 cents before leveling off at 65 cents.
Prediction markets are often called sentiment gauges and more reliable methods of forecasting than opinion polls because those making predictions are putting in money and are therefore incentivized to do so. Research thoroughly and express honest opinions
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