Excerpted from Twitter: @薛定谔的猫叔
Perfectly explains why the CPI data did not pull up the market
The certainty of the interest rate cut that everyone has been thinking about has come, but the US stock market opened higher and then fell, and the crypto market also rose a bit at the beginning of the data release and then fell again.
Personally, I feel that the Federal Reserve or Powell is obsessed with 2%. He is even more worried that after the future economic recession, he will face two-way or even multi-directional pressure, and inflation is like a vicious poison, which can easily cause many problems.
Many people think that the United States will not decline because the United States is currently dominated by the financial industry, and GDP is also dominated by the service industry, and the proportion of financial and government services in this part of the service industry is relatively high. The reason why everyone thinks that the US economy will not decline is that they do not rely on industry, but this is also a disadvantage. If a financial or economic crisis occurs, the risk factor of the United States itself is the highest. They are now a bit like high-end players playing high-end games, which is really awesome, but the risk is too high.
And for the content of the painter boss, I think I can add a point of view. The reason why the inflation in the US economy in the 1980s was relatively mild at that time was because the United States had just completed its economic transformation at that stage, shifting from industrial capital to financial capital. At the same time, its own industrial capital was also expanding abroad, and there were still many excellent industrial capitals in the United States. Therefore, inflation under industrial capital is often relatively mild, also known as benign inflation, which can control prices by adjusting production materials, importing and exporting raw materials, etc., so as to slow down inflation.
However, for a period of time afterwards, the United States increasingly relied on an economic system dominated by financial capital, which led to the inflation elasticity, stubbornness, and easy creation of social contradictions.
Personally, I think the painter can take a look at the content in this regard. I think that although both are inflation, they are different in nature.
