When will this bull market end? The following is just my personal opinion.
Only today can we really see clearly that the engine of this bull market is not new concepts such as RWA DEPIN. There is no real innovative technology or killer application in this bull market.
Most of the project parties in this session are assembly line production. With the support of VC + Mao Mao Party, they repeat the wheel and finally cash out. The path is clear and mature, the exchange is highly cooperative, and finally retail investors pay the bill and exit. There is no motivation for innovation.
The only thing that can be called "engine" is "American narrative":
- BTC ETF, ETH ETF, etc.
- An increasingly clear regulatory environment
- It is expected that the first crypto-friendly president will take office (Trump)
All these events will develop to a climax in the next six months. Trump concept + regulation paves the way, and various ETFs provide a steady stream of water. Such cooperation will make this round of market development to its peak.
In short, in the next six months, the price of big cake will be above 10w, and this round of market development will reach its highest point.
As for the "interest rate cut" and "water release" that have been expected by the outside world, I think they will not really bring water in this round of market. The main positive factor that can be brought is only "expected benefits", and there may be one interest rate cut in this round of market.
As mentioned in the previous blog post, the transmission of the macro economy is very slow. Unless there is direct QE and violent water release, if it is just a rate cut, the water source brought by the rate cut will take 6 to 12 months to be transmitted.
In addition, it is important to point out that the reason behind the US rate cut this time is not only determined by the US's own economic factors, but also by complex political games. I don't think the US will really cut interest rates three times this year. It can be expected, but don't take it seriously.
The interest rate cut is still uncertain, let alone QE. This round of market is likely to catch up with QE. The time for interest rate cuts and QE will definitely exceed everyone's expectations. Maybe it will take 2 or 3 years? Maybe it is the engine of the next bull market.
The above is a judgment on the market in the next six months and the real driving force behind it. It only represents personal opinions. Don't criticize if you don't like it.
