July 11 Macroeconomic Data Interpretation: US June Unadjusted CPI Monthly Rate/Annual Rate! Recommended Reading: ★★★★
US June Unadjusted CPI Annual Rate/Monthly Rate, data provided by the US Bureau of Labor, is a consumer price index calculated based on the changes in residents' daily necessities and labor prices. It is also one of the important indicators for measuring US economic inflation.
Bold assumptions, cautious analysis, welcome to Uncle Cat's encrypted "channel"
Data content: Annual rate: previous value 3.3% expected 3.1%, Monthly rate: previous value 0.00% expected 0.1%
Impact of data results: Crypto market fluctuations may have to wait until the US stock market opens.
Annual rate:
The data recorded 3%, inflation has dropped significantly from the same period last year, and the decline has exceeded expectations. Inflation is accelerating downward, which is beneficial to the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts.
Monthly rate:
The data recorded -0.1%, which is the first negative monthly rate since December 2022. Short-term inflation accelerated downward, and residents' consumer confidence declined, which may cause short-term oversupply, which is consistent with Powell's speech last week that the US economy may already be on the road to deflation.
The data is bearish for the US economy and good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts.
Summary:
In terms of annual rate, US inflation accelerated downward, which may be faster than the Fed's expected inflation target of 2%, which is indeed conducive to the increase in expectations of interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, the negative monthly inflation rate may put the US economy at risk of recession in the short term. Given Powell's views expressed early yesterday morning, if the US economy is at risk of recession and inflation has not reached the target, Powell may "take risks" and continue to maintain high interest rates.
Overall, the data is good for the risk market. After the data was released, the crypto market rose slightly, indicating that bulls are ready to go and patiently wait for the reaction of US stocks after the opening.
At the same time, it should be noted that since the data is positive, tonight's game points of Bitcoin's 60,000 and Ethereum's 3260 are both relatively important. Let's see if the positive sentiment can make the price return to a safe range and change the daily downward trend.
