#今日市场观点 Tonight, at 20:30 under the starlight, the global economy will usher in a crucial data feast - the US Consumer Price Index CPI for June is about to be announced.
This moment is not only an in-depth analysis of the domestic price dynamics in the United States, but also an important foreshadowing of the fluctuations in the global financial market sentiment. Colleagues, let us focus on the key nodes in this economic field. For the majority of investors, the change in the annual rate of CPI is undoubtedly the most direct measure of the inflation level.
Previously, the indicator remained at 3.3%, but now the market generally expects it to fall back to 3.1%. The forecast value of the Cleveland Fed is also slightly lower, at 3.12%. This trend expectation reveals the market's optimism about the easing of inflationary pressure.
As a key indicator after excluding the impact of food and energy price fluctuations, the core CPI has stabilized at a high level of 3.4% before, and the market forecast value remains unchanged, but the Cleveland Fed has put forward a more prudent forecast of 3.52%. This difference warns us that even in the core areas of non-food and non-energy, the inflation situation in the United States is still like the waves on the sea, and it is difficult to accurately predict its future direction, and there is even a risk of further aggravation.
Against this background, the decision-making challenges faced by the Federal Reserve are becoming more and more severe. The strategy of simply relying on inflation to cool down on its own to achieve the target of interest rate cuts seems to be becoming increasingly unrealistic. Instead, it may be necessary to rely on the economic signal of rising unemployment, forcing the Federal Reserve to make a difficult trade-off between curbing inflation and preventing economic recession. After all, rising unemployment is often seen as a precursor to deteriorating economic health.
If both CPI and core CPI can achieve a decline based on the previous value, it will be good news that the market has been waiting for a long time, and it is expected to bring a cool comfort to the global economy. However, if only CPI is eased, while core CPI rises against the trend, market sentiment may experience violent fluctuations, as thrilling as a roller coaster. As for the extreme situation where both rise at the same time, we need to plan ahead to cope with the market storm that may follow.
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