At 22:00 tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be questioned by members of the House of Representatives. The background of this event is that Powell did not reveal the timing of the interest rate cut in his speech yesterday, but there was a subtle change in his speech, suggesting that the Fed's monetary policy may be adjusted. The Fed's monetary policy has a significant impact on the market. Recently, inflationary pressures have eased, but the risk of slowing economic growth remains. Powell's attitude is crucial, and whether he will provide more clues about interest rate cuts tonight is the focus of market attention. If Powell continues to maintain an unrelenting attitude, the market may remain cautious about the uncertainty of future policies, and the stock, bond markets and crypto circles may fluctuate.
On the other hand, Trump will give a speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. This news will undoubtedly have a certain impact on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin prices have fluctuated sharply in recent years, and players are highly sensitive to changes in policies and market environments. Trump's speech may involve policy directions and market expectations, which have a direct impact on Bitcoin price fluctuations.
In July, the seven largest Bitcoin ETFs had an average daily trading volume of $1.75 billion. Among them, the average trading volume from July 1 to 3 was US$1.24 billion, while the average trading volume from July 4 to 10 rose to US$2.13 billion, an increase of 72%. It can be seen from the data that Bitcoin ETF trading volume increased significantly in July, which reflects the rising market interest and demand for Bitcoin. Especially from July 4th to 10th, the significant increase in trading volume shows that players are more actively participating in market transactions during this time. This is related to a variety of factors, including increased market volatility, players’ increased confidence in Bitcoin, and positive expectations for future market direction. This increase in trading volume is an important signal for the market, showing that Bitcoin ETF as an investment tool is receiving more and more attention and recognition from players.
The German government has sold up to $496 million worth of Bitcoin in the past 16 hours. The sale included the transfer of 10,853 BTC ($637 million) for approximately $58,659, and the recovery of 2,442 BTC ($141 million) for approximately $57,560. Currently, the German government only has 15,552 BTC left, worth approximately $894 million, which is approximately 31% of the original amount they seized from the pirated movie website Movie2k in January. This massive sale of Bitcoin has a significant impact on the market. ZF's massive selling will trigger a wave of selling in the market, causing prices to fall. However, the price of this transaction was relatively high, at around $58,659 and $57,560, indicating that the market digested the impact of this sell-off in a short period of time.
The SEC may approve a spot Ethereum ETF on July 18. If trading is open, it will be an important milestone in the cryptocurrency market. The approval of a spot ETF means that players can buy Ethereum directly without going through a futures contract. This is a positive signal for the liquidity and transparency of the market. Compared with futures ETFs, spot ETFs have more accurate price tracking, and players can participate in the Ethereum market more directly. Currently, the spot price of Ethereum is about $3,080. Considering the recent price volatility of Ethereum and the market's expectations for ETFs, the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF may further drive its price up. Players should pay attention to the SEC's decision on July 18 and make corresponding strategy adjustments.
This Friday (July 12), Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options with a nominal value of approximately $1.8 billion will expire for delivery. This includes $1.351 billion in Bitcoin options and $446 million in Ethereum options. According to data from Deribit, Bitcoin’s maximum pain point price is $58,000, and Ethereum’s maximum pain point price is $3,100. Currently, Bitcoin’s spot price is around $57,600 and Ethereum’s spot price is around $3,080. The maximum pain point price refers to the price point at which the interests of buyers and sellers of all open contracts in the option market conflict the most. That is, when the market price is at this point, the option seller suffers the greatest loss and the buyer gains the greatest gain. Based on available data, the spot prices of both Bitcoin and Ethereum are very close to the maximum pain point price, indicating that the market may experience significant volatility around option expiration, especially on the day of option expiration.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 3,818 coins yesterday, worth $216 million.
BTC: It closed with a shooting star yesterday and is now at the 5-day moving average position, currently suppressed by the 200-day moving average position. MACD: The DIF line is breaking through the DEA line upwards. Although it is still in the negative range, this change indicates the weakening of short-selling power and the strengthening of the market. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 2,540 coins yesterday and is currently in a state of volatility. Be more patient, as there is still a need for further rebound in the future. Rebound height reference: around 61,200; around 63,600;
ETH: Linked to Bitcoin trend.
SOL: A cross line was closed yesterday, and the daily level is now above multiple moving averages. There is a strong demand for a rebound in the future.
ONDO: Yesterday, the market closed with a medium-sized positive line, with a shrinking volume and a relatively healthy trend. We continue to be optimistic about the rebound in the future.
The panic index is currently 29 (fear) #美联储何时降息？ #德国政府转移比特币 #比特币走势分析
