Rate cuts are coming, rate cuts are coming

It's a big deal, a big positive is coming. Fed Chairman Powell gave a very dovish expectation of rate cuts in the second congressional hearing that just ended

A congressman asked him, the Fed repeatedly emphasized that your policy goal is to reduce inflation to 2%, so do you have to see CPI and PCE reach 2% before you start cutting rates?

Powell said that there is no need for the entire CPI and inflation to fall, it has inertia. If I cut rates only when I see 2%, then due to inertia inflation will continue to rush down, breaking through 2% will be lower than my target. So I don't need to see 2% to cut rates in advance.

The PCE in the United States last month has reached 2.6, so from 2.6 to 2%, the next two months will be September, which can give him enough confidence to cut rates. After Powell said this, the congressman's next question was more direct. He said that if you don't need to see 2% to cut rates, Powell, then will the rate be cut in July this month? Or will it be cut in September next month?

This multiple-choice question directly points out the timing of his expected rate cut. Powell did not deny that your forecast is too optimistic. Powell just played Tai Chi and said how could he give a specific time for the rate cut now?

But don't be afraid, Powell is just afraid of early leaks, which will cause the market to enter the KTV second inflation rebound again, but his statement is enough to give everyone confidence, that is, the September rate cut is almost a done deal.

Sure enough, after he let down his dove today, the US dollar plunged directly, the three major US stock indexes all turned red, and commodities rose straight up.

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