[Viewpoint] Emotion determines the bottom, funds determine the top
➤Emotion determines the bottom
The German government is still selling BTC, but BTC has not continued to fall like in the past few days.
This confirms the view that has always been held - funds determine the top, emotions determine the bottom.
The German government's sale of BTC is not the bottom, but the emotional effect caused by the German government's sale of BTC has formed the staged bottom of this wave.
Grayscale can't break through the faith,
Mentougou can't break through the faith,
and the German government can't break through the faith...
The market panics and loses faith in the bull market and even in the currency circle. That's when it's the most panic. And the only one who can break this faith is probably the currency circle itself:
At the end of 2018, in order to compete for the name of BCH, two major mining forces smashed the market to compete for computing power... It makes people feel that the so-called blockchain, cryptocurrency, fork... It seems like a farce.
In mid-2022, Luna, which ranks in the top 10 in market value and is invested and endorsed by a large number of institutions, collapsed... It makes people feel that institutions are nothing more than that.
At the end of 2022, FTX, the world's second largest exchange, with a large number of institutional investments and deposits, went bankrupt... It makes people feel that large exchanges are also unreliable.
If funds can't hit the bottom, emotions can.
➤ Funds determine the top
On the contrary, the bull top often appears in a loose monetary environment.
In 2024, BTC broke through the previous high. However, without the favorable macro environment, the market is just like this. On the one hand, the height of BTC is almost the same as the previous high. On the other hand, there is no cottage season.
Emotions can't buy the top, only funds can!
Of course, funds and emotions affect each other, and they cannot be separated and generalized.
There are two conclusions here:
First, the impact of the German government's selling on emotions has basically passed.
Second, the so-called bull market that is separated from the macro-easing environment may only be a small bull, at most a medium bull, and the big bull has not yet come.
