ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, according to CryptoQuant data, the BTC profit and loss index is currently hovering near its 365-day moving average, which usually means that a major adjustment or the beginning of a sustained bear market may be imminent. The previous death fork (downward cross) in the data was a precursor to the deep declines that began in May and November 2021.
In addition, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator is also approaching a key level that signals a bear market. The lack of growth in Tether’s (USDT) market capitalization also suggests that a rebound may be difficult to achieve, as historical recoveries can almost all be attributed to rising stablecoin liquidity.
However, CryptoQuant data also shows that Bitcoin whales have been increasing their holdings during the recent downtrend, with whale holders increasing their holdings by 6.3% over the past month, the fastest pace since April 2023. The German government's massive sell-off also appears to be coming to an end (currently 13,100 remaining). Other positive factors, such as the US-approved Ethereum spot ETF and the continued growth of US stock indexes, suggest that despite signs of weakness in the short term, the rise will continue in 2024.