Market Analysis – Has BTC Bottomed? Complete interpretation of multiple data and how to proceed
BTC fell sharply again last Friday due to the double negative effects of Mt. Gox and the German government's currency sales. It fell to the low of $54,000 in May before it stopped falling and rebounded. Since June, BTC's largest decline has been approximately 26%, and ETH's largest decline About 27%, the overall market is filled with strong panic. This weekly report will analyze multiple market cycle indicators to determine how to operate in the future.
Let’s talk about the conclusion first:
The decline will be limited in the short term, and subsequent shocks will be the main focus
Some of the copying strategies will be adjusted in response to subsequent trends. It is expected to reduce the proportion of AltCoin and add short-stop profit strategies.
If it is expected that subsequent shocks will be the main trend, you can consider opening a grid to operate. You can choose ETH or SOL as the target. The former has bullish news about ETFs and strong support below. The latter has strong fundamental support. From this wave of price trends and rebounds The amplitude can be observed, and the grid parameters can refer to the following configuration.
1. The dividing line between bulls and bears EMA200 – the main trend is shock
EMA200 has always been a consensus used by the mainstream to judge whether it is a bull market or a bear market. A trend above EMA200 is a bull market, and a trend below EMA200 is a bear market. Therefore, you can see from the chart why the market generally says that this bull market started in 2023 last year. On 10/16, the volume surged and it officially opened after breaking through EMA200.
At present, the price of BTC has officially fallen below EMA200 on 7/4 last week, declaring that the bull market has ended. Judging from past historical trends, when the bull market ends and falls below this line for the first time, the chance of falling all the way is very low, and it usually lasts for a period of time. The 1-2 month shock, based on the latest history, was from August to October last year. The shock consolidated for about two months before breaking through and attacking. In 2021, the bull market high of 60,000 fell below EMA200, and it also fluctuated up and down. About 70 days later, the follow-up took the direction. As long as it involves the bull-bear transition of a large cycle, there will actually be a period of transition in the middle. The chance of a sudden reversal is relatively low, and we are currently in the transition period.
2. ZMET hot and cold indicator – already at a low point, subsequent consolidation will be the main trend
The ZMET hot and cold indicator can very well identify the general trend of the entire market and is not affected by market capitalization, so it is very useful for judging the AltCoin market.
The indicator turned from green to red for the first time on March 14 this year, and the value at that time was 96, which represented an overheating range, indicating that the market was beginning to weaken. The second time was on June 8. Let’s look back at these two signals. In fact, they are all very useful for reference. The current trend has reached the supercooling range of -90 gray points, which means that the market is very sluggish. The gray points mean that the market is flat and will not continue to deteriorate, because the current trend has been too cold, and there may be a short-term rebound demand.
Looking back at the performance when it fell into the super-cooling range three times in the past 2022 to the present, it usually takes 2-3 months for the indicator to bottom out again after reaching the super-cooling range, and then the indicator will show consecutive green dots and rise again, indicating the return of the bull market. During the consolidation period, the indicators usually display red, green and gray, and there is no continuous trend. This period is usually difficult to operate. The rise and fall between the sectors are very inconsistent. It may take until September-October to get out of a trend. A relatively large trend.
3. Call option reorganization, implied volatility reveals the market may be stabilizing
Bitcoin has fallen to $54,000 over the past week amid selling pressure from Mt.
According to information shared by the derivatives trading platform Deribit, a large number of long-term held December and March call options with target exercise prices above US$90,000 have been reorganized, and the exercise prices have been adjusted to US$62,000 to US$70,000. The price added a $7 million premium to the $90,000 call option, an adjustment that reflects option holders' new expectations for the market.
Additionally, the gap between implied volatility and historical volatility has narrowed by nearly 90%, suggesting traders expect Bitcoin prices to remain within a range and stabilize.
4. ETF buying provides price support
Amid Bitcoin weakness, spot ETFs instead saw roughly $500 million in inflows in the bottom range. Among them, capital inflows on July 8 were close to US$300 million, the highest level in the past month. ETF buying played a supporting role in the market.
Judging from the pattern of the line chart, Bitcoin formed a double bottom pattern at the bottom range of $54,000, which is usually regarded as a signal that the market may rebound.
5. Seize the opportunity to build a position in the third quarter
On the other hand, judging from the monthly price performance of previous years, Bitcoin’s performance in the third quarter was generally unsatisfactory, especially in August and September, where the average returns were negative. Coupled with the current market expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, from a timing perspective, the third quarter may be a very suitable period for building a position.
Binance Copying Analysis GTRadar – BULL
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL" and "GTRadar - Balance" in the past 7 days are -0.79% and -0.22% for the former, and -7.7% and +0.39% for the latter in the past 30 days.
The market has fallen sharply again in the past week, with BTC falling as low as $54,000 and ETH falling as low as $2,800. However, the decline of other AltCoins has been relatively limited and has reached a position where it can no longer fall. In recent days, the market has begun to fluctuate. At the bottom, the two investment groups did not suffer much losses due to the sharp decline in the past week, while "GTRadar - Balanced" made a small profit by relying on some short orders.
In response to the subsequent trend of the overall market, it is expected to reduce the proportion of AltCoin and add a short-term profit strategy.
Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds a net long position of approximately 5% (full position is 300%), of which SOL and BTC hold the largest positions.
At present, "GTRadar - Balance" has little difference in long and short positions. The long orders are mainly ETH and BTC, and the short orders are mainly SAND and FTM.
The long-term returns of a follower who often changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
hot news
Paraguay suddenly raises electricity bills for miners! Electricity costs surge by 14%, miners urgently withdraw funds
Paraguay’s National Electricity Authority (ANDE) issued a notice on an increase in electricity rates on June 26. ANDE announced an increase in electricity prices for the country’s Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining operations, resulting in a serious threat to the operations of the country’s mining operators. According to local media reports, ANDE has increased electricity prices for crypto-asset mining, blockchain, token and data centers by 14%, which may affect the viability of related industries to continue operating in the country.
CMC report: More than half of new tokens listed on the four major exchanges this year have negative returns
Data compiled by CoinMarketCap shows the differences in listing performance across the four exchanges. As of June 25, Binance, OKX, Bybit and Bitget have listed 30, 33, 132 and 313 new tokens respectively this year. The proportion of new tokens with negative return on investment accounted for 50% and 63.64 respectively. %, 71.97%, 80.19%.
The Financial Supervisory Commission announced the first company to pass the anti-laundering declaration this year, and was surprised to see Taiwan Mobile Investment Company
According to the Financial Supervisory Commission, which updated the list of virtual currency platform operators that have completed anti-laundering compliance statements this week, the number of operators increased from 25 to 26. What is even more unexpected is that the industry that completed the compliance statement this year turned out to be a company invested by Taiwan Mobile Group.
Mt.Gox begins paying back BTC and BCH to creditors
Mt. Gox’s reorganization trustee announced on July 5 that the exchange had begun repaying some creditors through some designated cryptocurrency exchanges under the reorganization plan. The trustee has previously detailed that the timeline for payments to appear in creditor accounts may vary by exchange, with Kraken exchange being given 90 days to process repayments, while Bitstamp may take up to 60 days, and repayments on BitGo will Shown within 20 days, both SBI VC Trade and Bitbank will complete payment within 14 days.
U.S. Department of Labor releases June job market data
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, slightly higher than the 200,000 expected. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, above expectations of 4% and the highest since November 2021.
The German government stepped up its selling efforts, selling 16,000 BTC in a single day
According to Arkham data, the German government transferred a total of 16,039 Bitcoins on July 8, with a total value of more than 900 million US dollars. Due to the sudden increase in selling power, the German government still holds more than 2 billion US dollars in Bitcoins. , triggering panic in the Bitcoin secondary market and exacerbating the downward trend in prices.
The U.S. Republican Party’s 2024 draft platform mentions cryptocurrency and promises to defend Bitcoin mining and self-custody rights
According to “The Block”, ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Republican Party has expressed support for cryptocurrency companies and holders in its official party platform, marking the party’s latest effort to win support from voters concerned about cryptocurrency. effort.
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of US$295 million yesterday, a new high in the past 21 trading days.
According to preliminary statistics from Farside Investors, the total net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) yesterday (8th) was approximately US$295 million, which was the highest net inflow in the last 21 trading days. Among them, the Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net inflow was IBIT issued by BlackRock, with an amount of US$187 million. This was followed by FBTC issued by Fidelity with $61.5 million.
The TON development team announced the use of Polygon CDK to develop the second-layer network TAC
The development team behind The Open Network (TON) blockchain announced on Tuesday at the Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) in Brussels, Belgium, that it will launch a new second-layer network TON Applications Chain (TAC) based on Polygon technology.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
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