The total contract holdings of the entire network are still close to 30 billion, the leverage effect has not been completely eliminated, and the market value of stablecoins has remained at a high of 150 billion for two months.
The MVRV value of BTC is 1.37, indicating that the market is still in a slightly profitable state.
Bitcoin seems to be unable to do so in mid-2024, while altcoins have collectively fallen sharply, and market panic has spread.
This does not mean the end of the bull market cycle.
On the contrary, the market may regain its upward momentum after months of adjustment.
From the perspective of short-term market indicators, the panic index has quickly slipped from greed to 27 in less than a month, showing the violent volatility of the market.
Although fear exists, it has not reached extreme levels.
The contradictions in the market distribution structure are becoming increasingly prominent.
Most of the leading stocks in the sector have not yet experienced sufficient corrections, resulting in an imbalance in the market structure and urgent need for adjustment.
The more layered problem is that the value of the crypto narrative has fallen far short of market expectations, making it difficult for the market to find truly valuable projects and out-of-circle products.
The current market participant structure has also changed.
Compliance institutions mainly participate in ETF products, but the scale of participation is lower than expected, and funds are difficult to flow to altcoins.
At the same time, there is a lack of sufficient high-quality projects in the market, resulting in inflated valuations, and tail VCs are facing survival pressure.
Entrepreneurs also appear weak, lack new infrastructure and application directions, and most of them are just remakes of old stories.
In order to restart the market, external funds need to be injected, and the distribution relationship to retail investors needs to be adjusted, and a group of VCs that cannot adapt to the market need to be eliminated.
Only in this way can the market regain its vitality after adjustment and start a new upward cycle.
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