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Macro News

1. According to foreign media reports, congestion has spread from the port of Singapore to Malaysia, with about 20 container ships anchored near Port Klang on the west coast of Malaysia near Kuala Lumpur, disrupting the supply chain and causing delays in the transportation of consumer goods. Analysts said the port congestion could continue until August.

2. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the "Regulation Conditions for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry (2024 Edition)" and "Administrative Measures for Regulation Announcements for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry (2024 Edition)" (Draft for Comments). The "Regulation Conditions for Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry (2024 Edition)" mentioned that photovoltaic enterprises should be guided to reduce photovoltaic manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs. The minimum capital ratio for new construction and expansion of photovoltaic manufacturing projects is 30%.

3. Shanghai Futures Energy announced that Wang × (00120195) group (account group number: B6001092) violated regulations on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures 2412 contract on July 9, 2024. Shanghai Futures Energy decided to take regulatory measures against relevant customers to restrict their opening positions on the corresponding contracts for one month.

4. Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, presided over a symposium with economic experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of July 9. Li Qiang pointed out that we should analyze the situation realistically, see the achievements, not avoid the problems, and make scientific decisions. We should implement macroeconomic policies well around achieving the expected economic development goals for the whole year, and continue to work hard to form a joint force.

5. Fed Chairman Powell said the labor market is strong but not overheated. Inflation is not the only risk we face, and "more good data" will boost confidence in inflation. Recent inflation data show "modest" progress toward the 2% target. It is not appropriate to cut interest rates until the Fed is more confident that inflation will continue to move toward 2%.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices fell across the board, with the August contract of U.S. crude oil falling 0.63% to $81.81 per barrel, and the September contract of Brent crude oil falling 0.82% to $85.05 per barrel.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.32% to $2,371.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.56% to $31.085 per ounce.

3. Most of the base metals in London closed lower, with LME copper futures down 0.4% to $9,875/ton, LME zinc futures down 0.52% to $2,940/ton, LME nickel futures down 1.91% to $17,140/ton, LME aluminum futures down 1.36% to $2,497/ton, LME tin futures up 0.66% to $34,445/ton and LME lead futures down 1.64% to $2,195/ton.

4. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures down 1.98% at 1077.75 cents per bushel; corn futures up 0.06% at 408 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 0.22% at 571.75 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed generally down at night trading, with most energy and chemical products falling, butadiene rubber down 1.47%, crude oil down 1.15%, styrene and LPG down nearly 1%. Black series fell across the board. Agricultural products generally fell, rapeseed oil down 1.99%, rapeseed meal down 1.83%, soybean oil down 1.69%, palm oil down 1.64%, soybean oil down 1.28%. Most base metals closed down, Shanghai nickel down 2.07%, Shanghai lead down 1.04%, alumina down 1.04%, stainless steel down 0.74%, Shanghai zinc down 0.59%, Shanghai copper down 0.56%. Shanghai gold rose 0.03%, Shanghai silver up 0.09%.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, satellite data show that from July 1 to July 7, 2024, the total iron ore inventory in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.394 million tons, an increase of 557,000 tons from the previous month. The inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and the absolute amount was at a relatively low level since the second quarter.

2. According to SMM research, as of July 9, 2024, the coke inventory in the two ports was 1.549 million tons, a weekly increase of 53,000 tons, an increase of 3.54%.

3. According to the latest data from the American Association of Railroads (AAR), the total weekly coal transportation volume in Week 26 of 2024 (June 22-June 28) was 57,796 cars, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month and 2.5% from the previous year. As of June 28, the total coal transportation volume in the United States was 1,400,375 cars, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. Bloomberg released its forecast for U.S. crop data in the USDA's July supply and demand report. Analysts on average expect U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2024/2025 to be 447 million bushels, with estimates ranging from 350 million to 572 million bushels. U.S. soybean production for 2024/2025 is expected to be 4.424 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 4.335 billion to 4.436 billion bushels.

2. The FAO's Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) said in its July report that global soybean production in 2024/2025 is expected to be 418.9 million tons, compared with 419.2 million tons in June and 393.6 million tons in the previous year. The downward forecast reflects reduced harvested areas in the United States and the European Union.

3. Bloomberg released data forecasts for South American crop production in the USDA July supply and demand report. Analysts on average expect Brazil's soybean production in 2023/2024 to be 151.7 million tons, with an estimated range of 149-153 million tons, and Argentina's soybean production in 2023/2024 to be 50 million tons, with an estimated range of 49-50.5 million tons.

4. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) showed that from July 1 to 5, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 59.39%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12%, and output increased by 58.36%.

5. According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia exported 1,596,844 tons of wheat in May, but no durum wheat. The total export volume in May was 14% lower than the 1,848,534 tons in April (including 3,801 tons of durum wheat), and was close to half of the 3.3 million tons exported in May 2023.

6. Data released by the Indian Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare showed that as of July 8, the sown area of ​​cotton crops in India was 8.063 million hectares, higher than 6.234 million hectares in the same period last year; the sown area of ​​sugarcane crops in India was 5.688 million hectares, higher than 5.545 million hectares in the same period last year.

7. Excessive rainfall has affected crop prospects in France, Europe's largest agricultural producer, with the country's soft wheat harvest expected to fall to around 2020 levels. Data from the French Ministry of Agriculture showed that wheat production this year will fall 15.4% to 29.7 million tons. This is still 14.2% below the five-year average.

8. According to Wind data, as of the week of July 9, soybean oil port inventories were recorded at 923,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from 893,000 tons in the week of July 2.

9. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 to 30 is estimated to decrease by 5.66%, including a decrease of 5.08% in the Malay Peninsula, a decrease of 6.69% in East Malaysia, a decrease of 7.09% in Sabah, and a decrease of 5.94% in Sarawak.

10. MPOC said that Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 2.4% to 19 million tons in 2024, and exports are expected to increase by 3.1% to 15.6 million tons. Malaysia's palm oil inventory will remain under pressure for the rest of the year, and is estimated to be around 2 million tons by December.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China will rebound to at least 44 million barrels in August after Saudi Aramco's sharp price cuts supported demand, several trade sources said on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia's exports to China in August will increase from about 36 million barrels in July, the first increase in four months, the sources said.

2. The latest data from Longzhong Information shows that as of the week of July 8, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt warehouses was 2.812 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% from the previous month. The total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factory warehouses was 1.145 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous month.

3. Data released by Vietnam Customs on Tuesday showed that Vietnam's rubber exports in June increased by 81.7% month-on-month to 153,487 tons. The total rubber exports from January to June were 726,652 tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. The rubber export value in June was US$247 million, up 83.4% month-on-month. The total rubber export value from January to June was US$1.108 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year.

4. Sources said Russia came close to OPEC+'s oil production target in June after producing well above its limit in the previous months.

5. Yuanxing Energy said that the fourth production line of the first phase of the company's Alxa natural soda project is still under trial operation. Due to equipment commissioning and other reasons, it has not yet reached full production. The company is working hard to promote the full production of the fourth line. The price of the company's soda ash products follows the market.

Metal Hot News

1. According to statistics from Mysteel's survey of 9 sample companies in Indonesia, Indonesia's nickel matte production in June 2024 was 27,300 tons, an increase of 21.57% month-on-month and 11.34% year-on-year; of which high-grade nickel matte was 19,100 tons and low-grade nickel matte was 8,100 tons.

2. Leng Bing, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Futures Exchange, said at the 2024 Shanghai Platinum Week and China Platinum Group Metals Market Summit that a draft design for the platinum-palladium contract has been formed. He said that the next step will be to accelerate the research and development of platinum-palladium. A survey of product quality, delivery brands and delivery warehouses for the entire market will be carried out to provide solid data support for the scientific design of contracts and ensure that the contract design is close to the needs of enterprises; and preliminary preparations for the establishment of registered brands and delivery warehouses will be organized.

3. Citi said that the positive trend of gold consumption growth in 2024 may push spot trading to a record high of $2,400-2,600 per ounce in the second half of 2024. The target price of gold in mid-2025 under the baseline scenario is $2,800-3,000 per ounce.

4. According to SMM, the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Ecuador stated that the Mirador copper mine project under Tongling Nonferrous Metals is expected to be approved for expansion and is currently in the final stage of approval. It is expected to be approved in August this year. After the completion of the second phase expansion project, copper production capacity will more than double. In 2023, the project will produce 121,000 tons of copper.

5. London Metal Exchange (LME) futures and options data showed that as of the week of July 5, speculators had increased their net long positions in LME copper by 9,156 to 85,601, the highest level in more than five weeks. Long positions increased by 1,021 to 429,293, the highest level in more than four weeks. Short positions decreased by 8,135 to 343,691, the highest level in more than four weeks and the lowest level in three months.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. How should we view the future of black metal futures?

Guotou Anxin Futures analysis pointed out that in the short term, market sentiment is pessimistic, fundamentals are lackluster, weak reality dominates price trends, and the black series as a whole is still under pressure. After continuous adjustments, the prices of related varieties are at a relatively low level in recent years. Under the low inventory and low profit pattern, there is still support below, and the volatility will be aggravated in the weak situation. Looking at the long-term cycle, the south will gradually exit the plum rain season, and the worst stage of demand will gradually pass, and the market focus may gradually tilt towards the peak season expectations. Supported by factors such as real estate bottoming out, accelerated issuance of special bonds, and global manufacturing inventory replenishment, the market is still expected to strengthen after adjustment. The rhythm is likely to be suppressed first and then rise, but the upper height is also relatively limited. Pay attention to policy changes before and after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

2. The fundamentals may be loose, and rapeseed meal may continue to be weak?

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that the better-than-expected growth of U.S. soybeans pushed CBOT soybeans to fall sharply, driving domestic meal futures to weaken. Against the background of upward supply expectations, rapeseed meal may be difficult to change its weakness in the short term. It is worth noting that the U.S. soybeans are currently in a critical period of growth, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather speculation on the market. From a fundamental perspective, the weather conditions in Canada's main rapeseed producing areas are normal, extreme weather speculation has failed, and the market expects Canada's rapeseed exports to remain high in June. my country's imported rapeseed crushing profit is at a high level in the past five years, and domestic coastal oil mills have sufficient rapeseed supply. And import volume data shows that my country's monthly rapeseed meal imports are far higher than the average level of the past five years. The increase in imports and the upward start-up of domestic oil mills have continued the trend of rapeseed meal inventory accumulation. However, the current downstream demand for rapeseed meal is weak, feed production is down year-on-year, and the fundamental pattern may be loose.

Today's important futures data and events at a glance

1. July 10, 12:30, Malaysia MPOB June palm oil report. According to a Reuters survey, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise for the third consecutive month in June due to slowing exports, while production has fallen from the previous month due to aging of Malaysian oil palm trees and weather problems. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.83 million tons in June 2024, an increase of 4.53% from May; production is expected to fall for the first time in 4 months, at 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 5% from May; exports are expected to be 1.24 million tons, a decrease of 10% from May.

2. July 10th (tbd) Malaysia's palm oil export volume from July 1st to 10th, according to ITS, Amspec and SGS. Shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec said that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June fell by 11.8% to 15.4% month-on-month. Pay attention to whether Malaysia's palm oil exports will continue to be weak, limiting the upside potential in the future.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data