July 10, 2024 Grandpa checks in
According to the research company, FTX creditors will receive cash claims of $12 billion to $16 billion in October and November this year. This bond is the compensation after FTX crashed, calculated according to the currency price at that time. Unlike Mentougou, Mentougou paid BTC and BCH, so part of the more than 10 billion will definitely be converted into buying orders, which is not so exaggerated compared to the billions of dollars sold by the German government. As for the concern that the currency of Mentougou will form a market crash, this makes sense but not completely.
Unlike the ruthless selling by the German government, the coins in Mentougou were transferred to different creditors, so not all of them sold the coins in unison. Another important point is that those who were able to open accounts in Mentougou were the earliest players in this circle, including a number of large players, and they were not in a hurry to sell the coins that might be compensated. Of course, objectively speaking, since there are coins entering the circulation, there will definitely be selling pressure, but I don’t think there is any need to worry too much. There will always be a contest between long and short sides in this market. It doesn’t mean that if someone sells coins, the price will fall indefinitely. Over the years, it has been proved that the bulls are not vegetarians.
The biggest macro benefit at present is the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to current market expectations, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September is 71.8%. Judging from the trend of US stocks, the market still has great expectations for the entire expectation, and the Nasdaq almost maintains the highest point of the daily line. In fact, from the perspective of the currency circle, if it were not for the selling of coins by the German government and some other groups, it would not have fallen so deep, and Bitcoin should have hovered around 70,000. This is also the reason why Bitcoin has begun to show resilience recently. After all, it is difficult for Bitcoin to be independent now.
From this perspective, the recent market is actually a sudden event, which is often called a black swan. On the other hand, the price I asked everyone to buy the bottom a few days ago is also quite attractive now. Whether you take some now for swing trading or continue to hold it, the next market is still relatively easy to do. The next market is likely to have a low-level oscillation period. If the oscillation range gradually rises, then the previous stage bottom will be determined.
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