Bitcoin moved within the range of 56930-59470 during the day
At the time of writing the Review, the price of Bitcoin was 59153
Market capitalization 2.12 trillion, dominance index 55.07%, fear index 28
Stock markets grew as usual yesterday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new ATHs.
Powell’s rhetoric - and it seems like it’s time to reduce the rate so as not to damage the economy, and the conditions for this are not yet ripe - did not make much of an impression on the markets.
The probability of a rate increase after his speech first fell and then returned to 72.5%. Because market participants understand that there is no alternative to reducing the rate in the current economic situation. The reasons have been discussed many times, and they are now confirmed by economic data. For example, the number of bankruptcies in June is the highest level in the last 14 years. More than during coronavirus psychosis.
I think that already this year the Fed will talk about supporting the economy. By the way, there were statements from the Trump team about replacing the head of the Fed if he wins. So Powell is now maximally interested in Biden’s victory (although “Biden’s victory” even sounds funny; rather, we are talking about another Democratic candidate).
Today at 17-00 Powell speaks, at 21-30 - Fed speakers. Perhaps they will cause movements in the market, although our main program is scheduled for tomorrow. SP500 updates highs for 6 days in a row. How do you think this story should end?
At the moment I don’t like the growing dollar index (already 104.8). But as long as it is below 105.5 and is not accompanied by a rise in bond yields, there is nothing extreme about it.
Bitcoin remained within the priority option from yesterday’s Review for a day, but in the morning it still switched to an alternative option. It has broken through the resistance area at 58000-58500 and is now trading around 59K.
The actions of the German government are no longer of interest to anyone in the market. Moreover, it is sold by the federal government of Saxony (a region of Germany) because they are required to do so by law.
The lack of payments on GOX reinforces the idea that payments there are actually much lower than advertised, and the potential impact of this factor on the market is greatly exaggerated.
Let's see what happens in this area by the end of the week.
Alts are still lagging behind Bitcoin, although they are growing. Apparently, they are waiting to see if Bitcoin will reach 60K. The level of fear in the market is still extreme - like in December 2022, after the FTX scam.
The priority option for Bitcoin today is a range with a lower limit at 55500-55000 and an upper limit at 59500-60000
An alternative option is to secure above 60K.
Of course, today those who like to short Bitcoin may be abused. But I am more inclined to believe that significant movements along it will happen tomorrow.
