Written by: Sleeping in the Rain
Let’s talk Pirate Nation.
This is an analysis that is just speculation and not for fun.
1. Basic data
First of all, Pirate Nation has good fundamentals. The first part is the on-chain activity (Proof of Play itself has created a Layer3 through Arbitrum Oribiter, and the main activity on the chain currently comes from the Pirate Nation game). The activity of Proof of Play Layer3 is second only to Basechain (XAI is a brush). Proof of Play is the first Layer3 to create such a high level of activity through its own dApp. (Here, another reason for being so active is that Pirate Nation is a full-chain game, and all the logic of the game runs on the chain)
From the changes in Gems, we can see people’s demand for $PIRATE and the team’s income (Gems are game tokens used to enhance the gaming experience)
According to the number of Gems calculated based on the price of 333 $PIRATE, 333 $PIRATE can purchase 3393+857 (Bonus) Gems. That is, 1 $PIRATE = 12.76 Gems. The current income of the team is about 57M Gems = 4.46M $PIRATE, about 1.2 million dollars (1.2 million income is the lowest estimate. If someone buys the other two packages, the team's income will be higher. The team can sell these incomes directly. The liquidity of selling on the chain is not enough. The best solution is to transfer them to Coinbase for sale).
If we calculate it by the number of boxes sold, it is (333*13075+166*331+66*1591)*0.27=1.21 million dollars. The two figures are similar.
The rapid growth of the team's income is short-lived. From June 22 to June 30, the team's income grew rapidly. In recent days, the income has dropped significantly. From the data in the figure below, the reason for the decline in income may be related to the lack of new players entering the game. Old players who pay for the game are playing the game and actively using Gems in the game. Another reason may be related to the increase in the price of $PIRATE - it is mentioned in the Docs that the team will adjust the exchange ratio according to the price of $PIRATE. If the team increases the purchasing power of $PIRATE, it may promote a new round of game pay. The next price adjustment may be on July 9.
The casting of in-game resources has also been well maintained. I won’t post the pictures one by one, but it is currently at a peak and stable state. This is also the advantage of the full-chain game, and you can see the data of in-game items/resources at any time.
According to the official statement, hundreds of people play Pirate Nation every day, with a total of 1,500+ players. Currently, you have to queue up to play the game (mainly due to the chain's capacity, which has temporarily delayed the entry of new players). If the chain cannot solve this problem, the development of the game will be restricted.
2. Token Economics
Total supply: 1B
Circulation: 216M
Current MC: 57M
VAT: 263M
Already listed on Coinbase.
Data from Coingecko
TGE unlocked 15% of $PIRATE, and the rest will be unlocked in 36 months. Investors & Advisors and Team's 11.75% + 28% will be locked for 12 months. That is to say, before June 13 next year, tokens will only be released to the Community and Ecosystem.
Currently, $PIRATE can be used to buy Gems (and other game props/services), and you can also go to the Foundation website to stake and earn PoP points. Staking has a staking multiplier that decreases by 10% every day. In other words, the earlier you stake, the higher the points multiplier. If you unstake, the multiplier returns to zero. Founder's Pirates NFTs (which are gone if you sell them) can also earn points. Currently, 125M $PIRATE has participated in staking, accounting for 57% of the total circulation.
Will there be PoP airdrops for points in the future? (Just a possibility, Pua)
3. Investment background
Pirate Nation developer Proof of Play completed a $33 million financing in September last year, led by a16z. If PoP issues coins in the future, or PoP's Layer3 issues coins, it may be airdropped to $PIRATE Stakers.
4. Summary + Viewpoints
All in all, Pirate Nation has good fundamentals, has captured a group of players, and has high game revenue. Just talking about $PIRATE, the token utility is fine, gamers need to use it to buy Gems, and speculators can stake the token to get PoP points. And it has not been unlocked by the investor team for more than half a year.
Motivation for the rise?
First, as I mentioned before, if the team wants to sell the revenue, it needs sufficient liquidity. Could this be the motivation for pushing up the stock price?
Second, raising prices to attract new players, and new players bringing more income? This is a question mark, and the game is now saturated - until the game solves the current problem of on-chain carrying capacity.
Third, with good fundamentals, many fundamental investors may buy $PIRATE. However, I think this is also questionable. The current market sentiment is average, and many people may not make position judgments during this period.
I personally will add a small bell to Pirate Nation's Twitter to know the latest progress in solving the problem. Also, I will pay attention to the staking data of $PIRATE. It seems a little early to bet on the rise at this stage. The key to buying is the focus of market attention. The current market's attention to $PIRATE is still in the brewing stage.
