The German government's market crash is like a light in the dark night. The 13,000 coins sold in a single day reflects the market's real ability to absorb the market. With this data, we don't have to be afraid of the market crashes in Mentougou, the United States, and the United Kingdom. It is equivalent to the negative news coming to fruition!
Yesterday, the German government set an example for Mentougou and the US government, which were about to ship their coins, by dumping 16,000 bitcoins in a single day. In the end, CEXs such as CB, Kraken, and Bitstamp returned 2,898 bitcoins to the German government wallet. The explanation given by CEX was that it was impossible to sell within the target range, which means that the current market's ability to absorb is about 13,000 bitcoins. Exceeding this range will cause a market crash. With this German test, market confidence has actually been greatly boosted. After all, the market did not fall too much from yesterday afternoon to today, so the previous market decline was actually caused by panic. Therefore, I think yesterday's German operation was epoch-making, which is equivalent to bringing light to the panic-stricken crypto market. Looking at the market trend today, people are basically no longer afraid of the selling pressure later. The Q4 bull market I mentioned before is still a high probability event.
Now the probability of a rate cut in September may have approached 80%, which is nearly 20 percentage points higher than last week's low. If the CPI and PPI on Thursday and Friday of this week can fall as expected, then the probability of a rate cut in September may very well go straight to 90%. This will provide a two-month window for speculation on the positive effects of a rate cut. Both the U.S. stock market and the crypto market are likely to see another wave of violent market conditions, especially if crypto can regain 70,000 before the FOMC on September 18, then it will be easy for the price to break through 100,000 in Q4.
Sol's ETF has now begun to be hyped by the market. Last night, VanEck and 21shares submitted the 19b-4 application for Solana ETF to the SEC. This is the process that Ethereum went through last month. The CEO of ETF STORE also said that once the SEC accepts these documents, it means that the decision-making clock will start ticking. Bloomberg analysts have judged that the SOL ETF trial deadline is March next year, which means that Sol has begun to take over, and the Sol ETF hype period will continue until March next year. If it coincides with the peak of the bull market in 2025, then the Sol price is likely to break through the previous high of 259. I expect that if there is a new round of bull market, the final price of Sol will not be lower than $1,000.
Yesterday afternoon, Binance delisted another wave of tokens, including bond dock mdx pols . These projects basically fell by 40 to 50 percentage points. I have said many times before that this round of bull market is different from the previous ones. The previous bull markets were mostly altcoin bulls caused by changes in narratives and business models, and Bitcoin served as a reservoir for the expansion of altcoins. Therefore, in previous bull markets, altcoins often performed better than Bitcoin. However, this round of market conditions is top-down. The bull market triggered by Bitcoin's native narratives such as ETFs and halving is then transmitted downward to the altcoin market. This model has led to many altcoins having no funds entering at all, and the rise and fall are all following the trend and without volume. Binance and other CEXs are listing coins crazily, resulting in the small amount of altcoin bull funds being concentrated on new projects, so many old coins are actually dead. Binance is still conscientious and has reminded you early on that it has made a watch list. Most of the projects on this list are going to be delisted, so the risk of holding them is very high. Of course, there are also those that escaped from the watch list, such as zen mln last week. If you win the bet, you can at least get 50% of the profit, but it is difficult. I think the safest way is to not touch the projects on the observation list. If you have coins on this list, try to escape in a short period of time and replace them with leading projects in other potential tracks, such as ai rwa meme depin btcfi restaking and the like. Because even if the bull market comes back, the first to benefit from the copycat projects are the high-quality projects in these tracks. Many outdated concept coins will eventually die.
