Top analyst Rekt Capital has shared his perception of Bitcoin’s market position and potential future trajectory. In his newsletter, the analyst highlighted Bitcoin’s weekly close below the $60.6K support level, suggesting a possible breakdown.
However, Rekt Capital emphasizes that historical patterns suggest Bitcoin may not be ready for a breakout yet. The analyst points to trends after halving and higher timeframe analyses to provide a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s price action.
New edition of the RC Newsletter is out! Bitcoin – The BreakdownIn today's newsletter, we talk about the Re-Accumulation Range breakdown and where Bitcoin could go from hereSign up here:https://t.co/T4cRMBv7of#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 8, 2024
Bitcoin’s Price Action Raises Questions
Bitcoin recently closed its weekly candle below the $60.6K support level, which marks the lower boundary of a re-accumulation range established in late February 2024. This development has caught the attention of market participants and analysts alike.
Rekt Capital noted, “Technically, this is the beginning of a breakdown, however it’s important to emphasise that a confirmed breakdown would only occur if BTC were to now rally to the $60,600 level and turn that level into new resistance.”
The analyst further explained that such price action is not uncommon for Bitcoin during re-accumulation phases. Throughout the current market cycle, Bitcoin has often dipped below range lows to grab liquidity before reclaiming support levels.
Consequently, the recent price movement could still prove to be a fake breakdown or a temporary deviation from the established range.
Historical Patterns Suggest Patience is Key
Rekt Capital drew attention to Bitcoin’s historical behavior following halving events. The analyst pointed out that Bitcoin consolidates for up to 160 days after a halving before breaking out into a parabolic phase.
Bitcoin is only about 80 days after halving, suggesting that a breakout may still be some time away. “Historically, Bitcoin tends to make fantastic gains in the months after the Halving,” Rekt Capital stated.
“History suggests that, given that breakouts occur only some 160 days after the Halving, time-wise BTC isn’t ready for a breakout yet seeing as we’re only 80 days or so after the Halving.”
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Higher Timeframe Analysis Offers Perspective
Looking at longer-term charts, Rekt Capital provided additional context for Bitcoin’s current market position. On the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin appears to be retesting the old all-time highs area as support, albeit in a volatile manner.
The crypto asset has held this level for four consecutive months, with the current price action representing a deviation below this support zone.
Furthermore, the quarterly chart shows a similar pattern. Bitcoin successfully retested its previous all-time high as support last quarter and is now attempting to do so again.
Rekt Capital noted, “However, we are only 8 days into the current Quarter so while BTC has pulled back over the previous days, price still has over 2.5 months left until this pivotal Quarterly close is in.”
While price action in the short term may seem concerning to some, Rekt Capital’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s outlook in the long run remains intact.
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