Regarding the latest situation of the Fed's interest rate cut,

According to the forecast of Citi analysts, as the US economy cools, the Fed may cut interest rates at eight meetings before the summer of 2025, with each meeting cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, and a total rate cut of 200 basis points. This will reduce the benchmark interest rate from the current 5.25%-5.5% to 3.25%-3.5%. Citi expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the resolution after the summer of 2025.

The Fed will also hold interest rate resolutions on July 31, September 18, November 6 and December 18 this year. Fed Chairman Powell recently made dovish remarks, which gave traders hope that the Fed may make its first interest rate cut in September.

However, the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts has been ambiguous. On July 2, at the European Central Bank Central Bank Forum held in Sintra, Portugal, Powell said that "considerable progress has been made" in bringing inflation back to the policy target. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that interest rate cuts should be considered in the coming months, because as inflation continues to fall, maintaining the current policy interest rate level will put greater downward pressure on demand. John Williams, President of the New York Fed, also pointed out on the 5th that the Fed has made significant progress in reducing inflation.

The latest interest rate decision released by the Federal Reserve on June 13 showed that the target range of the federal funds rate remained unchanged at 5.25-5.5% for the seventh consecutive time. The dot plot shows that interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points in 2024 (75 basis points are expected in March), and no officials believe that there will be three or more interest rate cuts this year, which was 10 before; four interest rate cuts are expected in 2025 (three interest rate cuts are expected in March). Four Fed officials expect no interest rate cuts this year, higher than the two in the March forecast; seven officials expect one interest rate cut this year, and eight officials expect two interest rate cuts.

The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment is risky, please be cautious when entering the market!

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