Macro-positive vs. industry-negative, how will it go? (1/2)
Macro-positive, US stock and bond markets continue to hit new highs. This week, Powell will attend a congressional hearing + US CPI data will be released, and it will become clearer whether the Fed will build momentum for a rate cut.
The currency market still needs time to digest the clear selling pressure from the German and US governments and Mentougou. The daily line may go out of the five waves of decline and then reach a new low, but the macro-positive drives the ETF and the mainstream miners' cost price to support the blue market. The probability of the bull market continuing without breaking 50,000 is greater.
[Basics]
1. The macro environment tends to be positive for rate cuts. Including last Friday's non-farm payrolls data, a series of data in recent weeks have continuously strengthened the market's expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September. The Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting from this month to next month may become the "preparation node" for the Fed to build momentum for a September rate cut. Powell's two Capitol Hill testimonies on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, as well as the US June CPI data on Thursday, may further affect the market's expectations for a rate cut.
2. Data from the derivatives market show that the market's bets on interest rate cuts have further heated up, and the expected probability of two interest rate cuts this year has once again reached 100%. At the same time, it is believed that the probability of a rate cut in September is about 76%.
3. The known selling pressure from the German and American governments and the Mentougou compensation in the currency market is bearish, and short-term prices are under pressure, and it is difficult to have a large market. With the favorable macro environment, the $BTC spot ETF will bring in new funds to take over the selling pressure, but it will take some time. At present, the price of BTC is close to the shutdown price of mainstream mining machines, and the probability of another breakout is very small.
4. Major events this week:
* Tuesday (July 9): US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony at the Senate Banking Committee
* Wednesday (July 10): Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony at the House Financial Services Committee
* Thursday (July 11): US June CPI data
* Friday (July 12): US June PPI data, US July one-year inflation rate expectations
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