According to ChainCatcher, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report said that on July 3, Bitcoin prices fell below the 120-day range to $53,219 due to market concerns about the German government and Mt.Gox creditors selling. However, weekend market data showed that a potential local bottom may have been reached. The market realized that the Bitcoin transferred by the German government, although of large nominal value, accounted for a small proportion of the total trading volume. Volatility indicators show that the market expects more stability in the future, and Bitcoin may hover at current levels or fall less.
Market positioning suggests complacency on the part of short sellers, with more late-shorting investors in the short term and likely no clear conviction on either side. Long-term Bitcoin holders continue to realize significant profits, while the sell-off by short-term holders may be nearly exhausted. The Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate turned negative for the first time since the May 1 bottom, potentially indicating that the market is oversold, which, combined with a recovering SOPR, usually means the market is finding a bottom. On the macroeconomic front, Fed officials remained cautious about cutting interest rates, although labor market data and easing inflation supported loose monetary conditions. Wage growth has slowed, job creation has been less than expected and unemployment has been prolonged. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs fell, reflecting weakening demand and sentiment, and employment fell in both manufacturing and services. The agency does not expect the Fed to cut interest rates at its July 30-31 policy meeting, but remains hopeful of a rate cut in September.
