The market will continue to face multiple challenges this week, especially after the non-farm super week.
Here are the key events to watch:
Fed Chairman Powell's Congressional Testimony:
- On Tuesday and Wednesday, Powell will go to Capitol Hill to deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony. The market is paying close attention to his remarks because this may directly affect market expectations. Powell is likely to maintain a dovish stance, which may put pressure on the US dollar and increase its risk of a pullback.
US June CPI data release:
- The June CPI data to be released on Thursday is a key indicator to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. The market generally expects the overall CPI annual rate to fall from 3.3% in the previous month to 3.1%, and the monthly rate is expected to rise slightly to 0.1%. The core CPI annual rate and monthly rate are expected to remain at 3.4% and 0.2%, respectively.
As the price sub-indices in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys have both declined, analysts believe that the risk of CPI data next week may be biased to the downside. If inflation slows further, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year will strengthen, putting pressure on the US dollar.
