10,000-word research report: Is the bull market not over yet? Check out the potential opportunities in the second half of the year

Author: Wilson Lee, Biteye core contributor

Editor: Crush, core contributor of Biteye

Community: @BiteyeCN

* The full text is about 10,000 words and the estimated reading time is 15 minutes

The first half of 2024 is about to end in the correction and consolidation of the crypto market. In this cycle, BTC has risen rapidly due to the influence of ETFs, and the performance of altcoins is relatively average. A large number of retail investors who missed out on BTC often complain about "no sense of participation".

As the market continues to pull back and consolidate, especially as a large number of altcoins have almost lost their gains over the past six months, new opportunities may be quietly brewing.

This article combines market hotspots and insights into future trends, and lists the tracks and targets that we believe are worth paying attention to in the second half of the year. The views only represent current thoughts.

01 Macro perspective: The bull market is likely not over yet, with risks and opportunities coexisting

At the initial stage of this cycle, the three core driving forces of ETFs, BTC halving, and interest rate cuts have been deeply rooted in people's minds.

From the farce of a well-known media reporting "ETF approval" in October last year, which ignited the market, to the official approval of BTC ETF in early January, the expectation gap for ETF dominated the trend and game of the entire market;

The BTC halving in April did not cause drastic fluctuations in the market due to the influence of geopolitical conflicts at the time.

With the implementation of the first two core driving forces, it is difficult for them to become the fuel to ignite the market in the future.

Therefore, the hype surrounding the expectation of rate cuts and the improvement in liquidity brought about by rate cuts will be the biggest external driving force for the subsequent outbreak of the crypto market.

For most crypto investors, perhaps waiting for the release of each core data and earning profits from short-term fluctuations is not the main way to make profits. Therefore, we just need to make it clear that in a longer time span, the market still has the benefit of interest rate cuts to look forward to. This is enough to show that the bull market is most likely not over yet, and pullbacks and consolidations mean the birth of opportunities.

Comparing the consolidation range of this round with that of the previous round, we can see that the current BTC seems to present a panic-inducing "M top" in terms of technical form, but the degree of correction is far less than the more than 50% correction after the first surge in the previous round, and the consolidation time is also much shorter than the previous round.

From a risk perspective, the depth of BTC's pullback is relatively small compared to the previous round. With the addition of external negative factors, it may further decline and test a lower support level.

From the perspective of opportunity, the "M top" was formed in a short time and with a small amplitude. The existence of expectations for interest rate cuts also indicates that the market is likely still accumulating strength for the next climb, and the market has encountered support at around 55,000.

There is a high probability that long-term opportunities exist, and the cost of chips and the preservation of principal will be the determining factors for the next wave of returns.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mBmRDBZW/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT

02 Meme: The track with the best odds in this round

2.1 Track Background and Core Logic

The wealth-making myths of Memecoins such as $DOGE and $SHIB have been enduring in the industry, and are also an opportunity for a large number of users to choose to enter Crypto.

Memecoin's position in this cycle has been further highlighted. It has gradually developed into one of the core tracks of Crypto in terms of asset market value and trading volume.

The total market value of Meme's assets has exceeded 50 billion US dollars, with a trading volume of more than 4 billion US dollars.

We can also find from the ranking of Memecoin that the Memes after $DOGE and $SHIB are all rising stars in this cycle, which further proves the excellent performance of Memecoin in this cycle.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/meme-token

Judging from the return rate of the track, Memecoin is also the track with the highest overall return, surpassing popular narratives such as RWA, AI, and DePIN.

Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/uy6y45d9rinmxkoCj7d1EQ

The core reason why Memecoin is so popular among investors in this round is that Meme’s odds are relatively better.

It is easier for retail investors to get early chips: With the expansion of the primary investment market in the encryption industry, the increase in project valuations by VC institutions has squeezed the profit margins of retail investors to some extent. In contrast, Meme's chip distribution is relatively fair, and retail investors have more opportunities to get more chips, so the price disadvantage can be significantly reduced.

There is no limit to the valuation and a lot of room for imagination: most Memecoins do not have a core business and their valuations are entirely based on market imagination.

Low consensus threshold: The content carried by Memecoin is easier to understand, and does not require investors to have a lot of fundamental knowledge, which can accommodate the consensus of the vast majority of investors; in addition, Memecoin can capture various hot spots in reality in real time, and continue to attract attention and funds.

The risk of Meme is that the supply of tokens is too large, making it difficult for investors to find certain targets. At the same time, Memecoin fluctuates violently, and high returns are accompanied by extremely high risks.

2.2 Focus on the target

Memecoin is difficult to value and categorize from other perspectives, so the following will select Memecoins with odds from the perspective of current market value for classification.

Compared with the old blue chips $DOGE and $SHIB, the new blue chip Meme that emerged in this cycle has better opportunities.

2.2.1 Blue chip level: $PEPE, $WIF

As one of the most outstanding Memecoins in this cycle, $PEPE has shown extremely strong price performance in this round.

As for the symbol of $PEPE itself, as a meme widely circulated on major social media, it is highly recognizable.

From the perspectives of both market-pulling consensus and cultural consensus, $PEPE is the undisputed first choice for Memecoin investment.

In addition, $PEPE’s current market cap is approximately $5.3 billion, which has certain odds and market acceptance for reaching the market cap level of $DOGE or $SHIB at their peak.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pepe

As one of Solana’s most representative Memecoins, $WIF has also achieved outstanding performance in this cycle.

The image of wearing a hat has been deeply rooted in people’s minds, and various other Memecoins with images of wearing hats have been derived.

$WIF's strong rebound after a decline has also made it a top choice for many investors.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogwifhat

2.2.2 Small and medium market capitalization: $DOG, $BOME

As the first dragon in the rune track, $DOG is very likely to explode in the future with the rise of BTC.

As an iterative upgrade solution for inscriptions, runes have a certain probability of replicating the fomo effect of inscriptions in the future, and the enthusiasm of retail investors can be more easily aroused.

In addition, the label of a new asset and the expectations of its unrealized gains may also become the core factors driving the rise of $DOG.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dog-go-to-the-moon-runes-2

$BOME is also a representative asset of this cycle. It broke the record on Binance and exceeded 1 billion US dollars in market value in 3 days, starting a new trend of pre-sale payment and occupying an important position in the hearts of investors.

$BOME still belongs to the PEPE-type culture, and its current market value is about one-tenth of $PEPE. Although it reached its peak as soon as it debuted, it did not start a secondary market, so $BOME has certain explosive potential.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/book-of-meme

03 AI /DePIN: Riding on the development trend of AI

3.1 Track Background and Core Logic

The popularity of ChatGPT has completely ignited the entire AI industry, and the impact of AI on humans has been elevated to the level of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution." The popularity of AI is directly and profoundly affecting the crypto industry through the two core logics of digital economy and hardware demand.

As AI’s penetration into people’s daily work and life continues to increase, computing power issues continue to become more prominent, and the market continues to increase pricing for computing power companies such as NVIDIA.

Computing power equipment is also the core pillar of the encryption industry. Before the explosion of AI, the encryption industry's demand for computing power once led to NVIDIA's rapid development period.

With the development of the encryption industry, computing power began to become excessive, and AI gradually became the demander of this idle computing power.

In addition, AI's tasks, resource allocation, and data input all take place entirely in the digital world, and the distribution of interests behind them is difficult to clearly define within the traditional framework. This article will tentatively refer to them as digital economic disputes.

The accounting and proof of work features of the crypto industry can naturally be used to resolve such digital disputes and coordinate the interest disputes behind AI software and hardware.

The sudden popularity of AI has brought a clear development direction to Crypto in the bear market. Various distributed AI computing power, algorithm and other projects have emerged, forming the current AI/DePIN track.

As the AI/DePIN track is increasingly tied to AI, the actions of companies such as Nvidia and OpenAI are beginning to affect the market for related tokens. With the emergence of hot topics in the advancement of AI technology, the crypto industry will develop along with the trends and hot topics in the AI ​​market.

3.2 Focus on the target

At present, Crypto x AI projects have penetrated into every aspect of AI. The following will analyze the targets worthy of attention from three aspects: computing power supply, algorithms, and AI economy.

3.2.1 Computing power supply

The AI ​​products we currently use rely on underlying large language models, and the construction of large language models relies on underlying GPU computing. The encryption industry not only has a reserve of computing power equipment, but can also build a computing power market through blockchain incentives, thereby providing an additional source of computing power for AI.

Keywords such as distributed and idle computing power are the characteristics of the computing power provided by the encryption industry, and the corresponding core narrative is cost reduction.

3.2.1.1 Arweave/AO

As an old storage project, Arweave has firmly established itself as a leading player in the storage field with its excellent ecosystem and storage cost-effectiveness.

With the launch of the computing platform AO by Arweave, Arweave officially entered the distributed computing market and officially became a computing power concept token.

Compared with other computing power projects, AO can naturally take advantage of Arweave's ready-made storage advantages to achieve a high degree of coordination between the computing layer and the storage layer, which is crucial for computing large models on the chain.

In addition, AO has made radical designs in parallel computing and message passing, which brings AO stronger performance than other distributed computing projects. Therefore, AO actually has a natural advantage in terms of computing power.

The launch of the AO platform and related public relations activities (PR) have jointly driven up the price of $AR, which is enough to show the market's recognition of AO.

As Crypto x AI continues to develop, $AR/AO will become one of the most promising AI tokens.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/arweave

3.2.1.2 io.net

io.net, which was recently launched on Binance, is the hottest newcomer in the current track. io.net is a decentralized GPU network designed to provide huge computing power for machine learning applications.

Their vision is to unlock fair access to computing power by assembling over a million GPUs from independent data centers, crypto miners, and projects like Filecoin, making computing more scalable, accessible, and efficient.

io.net offers a completely different approach to cloud computing, leveraging a distributed and decentralized model to provide users with more control and flexibility over computing power, with a service that is permissionless and low-cost.

According to io.net officials, their computing power is 90% lower than that of centralized service providers such as Amazon AWS. The combination of all these factors makes io.net a leader among decentralized providers.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/io-net

3.2.2 Algorithm

3.2.2.1 Bitter sensor

Bittensor is a decentralized network that connects machine learning models around the world. By coordinating multiple specialized AI models, it improves the accuracy and efficiency of solving complex problems. This approach combines the unique advantages of each model to produce more precise and comprehensive results, which is better than the traditional single model approach.

Bittensor also achieves scalability by building an ecosystem. It can currently accommodate 32 subnets to adapt to services in various vertical scenarios.

Bittensor's practice in algorithms and ecology is highly innovative, making full use of decentralization to stimulate AI. The current market value is close to 6 billion, making it a relatively safe target.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bittensor

3.2.3 AI Economy

3.2.3.1 Artificial Superintelligence Alliance($ASI)

ASI is a merger of three Crypto x AI projects, Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN), SingularityNET ($AGIX), and Fetch.ai ($FET), which have been deeply engaged in related fields for many years.

After the merger of the three projects, a team called Superintelligence Collective will be established, with SingularityNET founder Ben Goertzel as CEO. The three projects will still operate as independent entities, but will work closely in the shared $ASI token ecosystem and the operation of Superintelligence Collective.

In the merger announcement issued by the three teams, not much was introduced about the new business to be carried out after the merger.

According to Ben Goertzel on his social platform, after the merger, future work will revolve around AGI (general artificial intelligence) and ASI (super artificial intelligence), which is why the name of the merged token is $ASI.

Token conversion information:

• Fetch.ai’s token $FET will be convertible to $ASI at a 1:1 ratio

• SingularityNET’s $AGIX and Ocean Protocol’s $OCEAN will be converted to $ASI at a ratio of approximately 1:0.433

• $FET, as the alliance's base token, will be directly renamed $ASI, and an additional 1.48 billion tokens will be minted, of which 867 million $ASI will be allocated to $AGIX holders and 611 million $ASI will be allocated to $OCEAN token holders.

Fetch.ai already has relatively mature experience in AI agents. On February 20, Deutsche Telekom announced a partnership with the Fetch.ai Foundation, becoming Fetch.ai's first corporate ally. At the same time, Deutsche Telekom's subsidiary MMS will also serve as a Fetch.ai validator.

Fetch also announced the launch of a $100 million infrastructure investment project "Fetch Compute" earlier this month, which will deploy Nvidia H200, H100 and A100 GPUs to create a platform for developers and users to leverage computing power.

Ocean Protocol has built many modular services in decentralized data sharing, access control, and payment. According to reports, its Predictor product has sold more than $800 million in six months since its launch.

SingularityNET was the one that explored the most in the AGI direction among the three projects before the merger. Its AGI team and partners TrueAGI and OpenCog community have been focusing on developing the AGI framework OpenCog Hyperon since 2020. SingularityNET will also launch a decentralized artificial intelligence platform this year with the aim of creating a basic environment suitable for running AGI systems.

ASI, formed by the merger of three long-standing strong projects, is a product of a strong alliance. With the synergy of business and economic systems, ASI is expected to achieve a new leading position in the field of Crypto x AI, while maximizing the capture of the incremental "attention" brought by the development of external AI technology.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/artificial-superintelligence-alliance

04 RWA: The only way for blockchain to be widely used

4.1 Track Background and Core Logic

RWA is the key track that closely connects blockchain with the real world. In the long run, it is an inevitable requirement for the large-scale application of blockchain. In the short term, it can introduce a large amount of funds and liquidity to the crypto market and the real market.

RWA involves tokenizing illiquid real-world assets and introducing them into the crypto market. The introduced RWA assets mean more value support for real-world assets for the crypto market, bringing potential overflow funds. At the same time, the interest-bearing assets in RWA can also provide enhanced returns for the crypto market.

For traditional assets, a new liquidation method is obtained, which allows illiquid assets to be arbitrage or liquidated quickly.

The capital inflow brought by BTC ETF has fully demonstrated the interest of funds outside the industry in the crypto market. With the emergence of representative cases in the RWA track, the track will further explode.

4.2 Focus on the target

4.2.1 Ondo Finance

Ondo Finance is a decentralized financial platform for RWA. Through blockchain technology, Ondo Finance has created a transparent investment infrastructure for institutional investors and is committed to becoming an investment bank on the chain, providing a variety of RWA products including bonds, real estate and commodities to meet the needs of different investors.

With the rapid growth of the RWA market, Ondo Finance, as a pioneer in the industry, has huge potential for development.

Its transparent and efficient investment platform will continue to attract more institutional investors and further promote the development and maturity of the market.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ondo

4.2.2 Swarm Markets

Swarm Markets is a blockchain platform that provides traditional financial digitization and trading solutions.

It encrypts physical assets including U.S. Treasuries and stocks and provides a legal trading infrastructure.

Swarm Markets is the world’s first DeFi platform to be licensed by BaFin (German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), ensuring that its operations comply with regulatory standards for financial markets.

As more and more traditional financial assets are tokenized, Swarm Markets' compliant and diversified trading platform will gain more market share in the future.

Its innovative financial solutions will continue to attract institutional and retail investors and drive the continued development of the platform.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/swarm-markets

05 Social: User growth potential and ecosystem development

5.1 Track Background and Core Logic

Whether in Web2 or Web3, social networking is the most important and core track.

For the industry, social networking can onboard new users and retain users through the relationships between users.

For various services and applications, social networking also plays an important role in growth, retention, and increasing user stickiness.

At present, the penetration rate of the Web3 industry still needs to be improved, and increasing user retention and stickiness is also one of the core problems it faces. Social networking is the main solution to the above problems.

In previous cycles, a large number of social projects have been tried, but none of them have produced phenomenal applications.

In this cycle, various technologies that lower user barriers and infrastructure that ensure performance and experience have become unprecedentedly mature. The social track is likely to create great opportunities in this cycle.

5.2 Focus on Target

5.2.1 Ton and projects within the ecosystem

As the only public chain officially supported by social giant Telegram, TON (The Open Network) has created a unique narrative in terms of payment, social networking, and mini-programs, relying on Telegram's huge 900 million monthly active users.

TON does not need to increase user migration costs. By leveraging Telegram's existing social network, TON can reconstruct the Web2 business model in a Web3 way.

Currently, the TON ecosystem is still in its early stages of construction, but ultra-high-traffic projects such as Notcoin and Catizen have emerged, demonstrating a huge user base backed by Telegram.

Therefore, TON and its ecosystem will most likely further stimulate the vitality of Telegram users in the future and foster a more prosperous ecosystem.

For more analysis, please refer to Biteye’s previous article: From Web2 to Web3: How TON Chain Reshapes the Future of Social and Payment

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/toncoin

5.2.2 Firecaster

Farcaster is a decentralized social networking protocol that uses smart contracts and hybrid storage technology to enable social connections, content sharing, and data ownership among users, while supporting diverse and flexible client and application development.

Farcaster is not a new social project, but a leader that has stood the test of the market.

Farcaster just opened for registration in October last year. This year, it has attracted market attention with multiple developments in data, ecology and financing, and has firmly established its position as the leader in the social track.

For more analysis, please refer to Biteye's previous articles: "Can Farcaster, the social leader with a valuation of 1 billion, become a new hot spot in the bull market?"

5.2.3 UXLINK

UXLINK is a dApp focusing on social networking among acquaintances. Relying on the good experience provided by Telegram and the clear idea of ​​"fission of acquaintance relationships", UXLINK has achieved remarkable results in data. In the second half of the bull market, UXLINK will have great potential to achieve an explosion of users.

For more analysis, please refer to Biteye’s previous article: "Understanding the Web3 Social Monster in One Article: UXLINK"

Source: https://x.com/Coin98Analytics/status/1803363935875375499

06 LSD/LSDfi: The destination of incremental funds

6.1 Track Background and Core Logic

LSD/LSDfi is the core component for building the basic income of the ETH ecosystem. With the imminent approval of the ETH ETF, we expect a large amount of funds to flow into the ETF, driving up the price of ETH. LSD/LSDfi will most likely usher in a growth point for the business and become a sector directly driven by incremental funds.

6.2 Focus on Target

6.2.1 Lido/Rocket Pool

As two leading LSD players, their brands are already trusted by big players, and they are likely to occupy an absolute market share in the incremental ETH staking.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/lido-dao

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/rocket-pool

6.2.2 Ether.fi

Ether.fi is a fully self-custodial and decentralized LSD protocol. Unlike other liquidity staking protocols, ether.fi allows participants to retain control of their keys when staking tokens and can exit the validator at any time to reclaim their ETH.

While ensuring full self-custody, ether.fi can also automatically pledge users' deposits to Eigenlayer to obtain returns, further protecting users' economic interests.

With fully self-hosted and EigenLayer guaranteed yields, Ether.fi also has huge potential to capture significant market share in the next round of track growth.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ether-fi

6.2.3 EigenLayer

As the pioneer of Restaking, EigenLayer has pushed LSD into LSDfi, further adding a source of income to the Ethereum ecosystem.

The LST ecosystem built around EigenLayer will also enjoy the incremental dividends brought by the ETH ETF. The EigenLayer token allocation has been determined and the official launch should not be too far away.

6.2.4 Renzo

Renzo is an EigenLayer-based re-staking protocol that aims to simplify the complex process of re-staking for end users.

It introduces the liquid heavy-staking token ezETH, which allows stakers to avoid having to worry about the active selection and management of operators and reward strategies, providing higher returns and liquidity.

As an important project in the LRT ecosystem and with the investment background of Binance, Renzo's current market value is attractive.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/renzo

6.2.5 StakeStone

StakeStone is a comprehensive LSD/LSDfi project. StakeStone integrates mainstream staking pools, Re-Stake, and LSD's blue chip DeFi strategy income to provide a highly adaptable staking income base asset for all protocols that require LSD liquidity.

Users can obtain STONE tokens by staking ETH, and then obtain the benefits of native staking and blue-chip DeFi strategies.

In addition, StakeStone also supports multi-chain operations, further improving liquidity and adaptability, and has unique advantages in supporting new ecosystems and obtaining early rewards.

As a project invested by Binance, StakeStone has certain expectations of appreciation after the token issuance. With the growth of its business, StakeStone is a great potential opportunity.

6.2.6 Carac

Karak Network is a restaking network, similar to other restaking projects such as Eigenlayer. It also uses a points model to incentivize users to restake and obtain multiple benefits.

In December 2023, Karak announced that it had received US$48 million in Series A financing, led by Lightspeed Venture Partners, with participation from Mubadala Capital, Coinbase and other institutions. Mubadala Capital is the second largest fund in Abu Dhabi. Karak's valuation in this round of financing exceeded US$1 billion.

The strong team strength and impressive investment background indicate that Karak has the ability to compete with EigenLayer and will also generate corresponding opportunities.

6.2.7 Pendle Finance

Pendle splits the volatility and principal of interest-bearing assets by introducing yield tokenization and trading, bringing a new participation paradigm to the entire LSD.

Pendle’s multi-collateral pools and risk management capabilities enable users to manage risk more effectively and hedge potential losses, reducing volatility and risk in the DeFi market.

With the passage of the ETH ETF, a large amount of funds will flow into ETH, promoting the development of the LSD/LSDfi ecosystem. As part of this ecosystem, Pendle is expected to benefit from it.

Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pendle

07 BTC Ecosystem

7.1 Track Background and Core Logic

The explosion of BTC ecology is one of the most eye-catching features of this cycle. Runes have stimulated the market's enthusiasm for BTC ecology. BTC L2 and various assets have sprung up like mushrooms after rain. BTC pledge/re-pledge has occupied a certain market position in the explosion of ETH LSD/LSDfi and BTC ecological assets. Runes, as a new type of ecological asset, also shined during the halving.

There is a common starting point behind these attempts: to activate a large amount of BTC funds and create a more prosperous ecosystem.

However, with the pullback of BTC and the wealth creation of inscriptions raising market expectations, the current BTC ecosystem is relatively quiet.

As the market improves, we believe that the BTC ecosystem will once again produce phenomenal ecological assets and bring huge opportunities.

7.2 Focus on opportunities

7.2.1 Rune: $DOG

For analysis, see the Meme section. The expectations of runes are affected by inscriptions, and the market performance can be called "peak at debut". As the leader of the rune section, $DOG has certain defensive attributes while having odds, so the rune section only recommends $DOG for the time being.

7.2.2 Others

A large number of BTC L2s have not formed an active ecosystem, and opportunities related to BTC staking are still unclear. We recommend waiting for the market to make a choice.

08 Summary and Outlook

The crypto market is no longer a separate market, but is gradually integrating into the real economy. When analyzing opportunities in the crypto market, we increasingly feel the importance of external driving factors in the industry.

When the market changes and adjusts, the key is to first clarify where we are in a cycle and which internal and external factors are driving the next small cycle.

During market consolidation and correction, we should not be dominated by panic. It is more worthwhile to think about the opportunities behind the decline.

We have summarized the tracks and opportunities worth paying attention to in the second half of the year, hoping to provide readers with useful reference.