12 Wall Street analysts participated in the foreign media survey, and the vast majority of analysts believe that gold will rise this week. 10 analysts (about 83%) believe that gold prices are expected to rise this week, 1 analyst (about 8%) predicts that prices will fall, and another analyst expects gold prices to go sideways in the next week.
Meanwhile, 164 retail investors participated in the online vote. 108 (about 66%) retail investors expect gold prices to rise this week. Another 26 (about 16%) expect gold to fall, while the remaining 30 (about 18%) expect gold prices to move sideways.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said he was not sure whether the weak jobs data increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but weakness in other asset classes provided new bullish momentum for gold prices.
Cieszynski agreed that the June minutes did not bring any surprises to the market. "When the Fed released its forecasts, it was very clear that they would only cut rates once this year, either before or after the election," he said. "The latest jobs data was very stagflationary because once you drill down into the jobs data, it's not good. Last month's data was revised down by more than this month's increase, while wages and hourly earnings did not fall."
He added: “The Fed is still in wait-and-see mode. They seem to be being dovish only to boost the market, otherwise they’re in trouble.”
Cieszynski said that based on gold’s reaction on Friday, he thinks “it’s just lowering the odds of a rate hike right now.” He said: “People are more convinced that even though the Fed wants to leave the door open for a rate hike, the Fed may not actually raise rates. If inflation starts to spike, they may have to raise rates. It’s a very complicated situation here.”
Cieszynski believes that the biggest boost to gold last week was the decline in Bitcoin. "Bitcoin got hammered again, and I think we're starting to see some money flowing back into gold and silver," he said. "I see them both as alternative currencies, and when people feel aggressive and want to take on risk, they rush out to buy Bitcoin. When people start to feel more worried, they go back to gold."
Cieszynski also said he expects broad weakness in U.S. stocks, even if a few strong tech stocks are still masking that fact. "The stock market appears to be breaking down below the top, which is more bullish for gold."
He agreed that the market is growing more confident about a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but warned: "I don't think a lot really changed last week. A lot of trading was distorted because of all the holidays." Cieszynski said that overall, he still believes gold is in a strong position and can rise further.
“I’m bullish on gold,” he said. “It looks like money is coming back because money is flowing out of cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks, so it’s clearly looking for other places to go.”
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
