Although Bitcoin fell below $54,000 on Friday, the total net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs on the 5th was $143 million, which not only reversed the outflow trend at the beginning of the week, but also set a new high in inflows in a month.
After the bankrupt Bitcoin exchange Mt.Gox started repaying debts, it was considered by the market to be the culprit for the recent downturn in Bitcoin's trend. The sell-off has not yet ended, and the repayment phase may continue until October. In addition, the German and US governments have also recently transferred large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges, suspected of selling coins for cash, and are also considered to be one of the culprits for the downturn in Bitcoin's trend.
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price of Bitcoin is close to the lower track and is at a low level. It may get support near the lower track. The gap between the upper and lower tracks is large, indicating that the subsequent market volatility is relatively high.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the three KDJ line values are currently at a low level, and the J line value is in an oversold state, but there is no obvious sign of turning, indicating that the price may fall further in the future.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are both below the 0 axis, and the DIF line is moving downward toward the DEA line, showing signs of a death cross. Once a death cross is formed, the price will fall further, and the MACD green bar chart will gradually increase, indicating that the downward momentum is getting stronger.
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the middle line is currently downward, showing that the overall market is in a downward trend. The price fluctuates between the lower and middle tracks, and rebounds when it approaches the lower track. This shows that the price has a certain rebound demand during this period, but overall it is still bearish.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the 1H level chart of Bitcoin, KDJ has an upward trend at a low level, and the J line value begins to rise, which shows that there is a certain rebound demand in the oversold area, but the overall listing momentum is not strong. If the K line value can cross the D line value upward to form a golden cross, it will more clearly show the signal of a short-term rebound.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are both below the 0 axis, and the DIF line shows signs of moving downward toward the DEA line. If the DIF line can cross the DEA line downward to form a death cross, the price will further decline. However, no clear death cross signal has been formed yet, indicating that the price will continue to move sideways or rebound slightly in the short term.
Comprehensive analysis: According to the Bitcoin 4H chart, the KDJ indicator is in the oversold area, and Bitcoin may rebound briefly. The price is running between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The overall trend is bearish. If the rebound is weak, it may continue to fall. According to the Bitcoin 1H chart, the support of the lower track of the Bollinger Bands and the oversold rebound signal of KDJ support a short-term rebound, but MACD has not yet formed a clear rise or fall signal, so the momentum of the rebound may not be too strong.
In summary, the great master gives the following suggestions for reference
Bitcoin rebounds to around 55,500 and goes short, with a target around 54,000 and a defense of 56,000.
I won’t make a detailed analysis of Ethereum, let’s just short it to 2800 first.
Writing time: (2024-07-08,11:25)
