Bitcoin went above 58K over the weekend, but at 58000-58500 it encountered a resistance area, after which it fell to 54200.
At the time of writing the Review, the main cryptocurrency is trading at 55400
Market capitalization 2 trillion, dominance index 54.89%, fear index 28
Stock markets opened negatively. The dollar index has been rising for more than 2 hours, as have bond yields. Futures for the S&P 500 are falling (not significantly yet), Asian indices are falling.
This week there will be a lot of important data for the markets.
- Today at 18-00 data on inflation expectations in the United States will be released.
- Tomorrow at 17-00 Powell and Yelen (Ministry of Finance) will speak. And topics that are important for markets will obviously be touched upon (monetary policy, bond repurchase, generation of new money).
- Powell speaks again on Wednesday.
- The most important thing will be on July 11, Thursday: US CPI data will be released.
- Plus the usual labor market data.
- On Friday - industrial inflation data (PPI)
- And on July 12, the reporting season begins. Banks come first.
The stock market has made new highs several times over the past couple of weeks. Therefore, before the release of so much data, many may want to take profits. In addition, Powell can ruin the best data with his rhetoric (as we saw with the recent release of the CPI).
Therefore, I consider the risk of a stock market correction to be quite high.
Although it is possible that Powell will also talk about disinfection, and the data will be as it should be. Since the importance of the election factor is growing. And this same factor could shake the markets - Biden’s doctor is already being called to Congress to testify about the patient’s health status. This is not surprising, after his latest antics, and rightly so, but it is an unfavorable factor for the markets.
Bitcoin has recently shown an inverse correlation with the S&P 500 - the index is rising, and Bitcoin is falling. But if the dollar index rises and the stock market falls, there is a chance that the correlation will again become direct.
However, the correlation with the stock market occurs when the crypto market does not have its own reasons for movement; and now we have enough of them.
I spoke yesterday about the factors for the fall of the crypto market for the coming week.
What are our growth factors?
1. Possible appearance of information about the true size of payments in mt.GOX, which will be much less than the expected 140K BTS. Why - I told here and here.
2. Positive information about ETH-ETF, and/or information about the release of ETFs for other assets.
3. Fear index at highs since December 2022. A large number of short positions that can fuel growth
4. Good CPI data and a fall in the dollar index.
What is happening fits perfectly into both the market cycle and what happened during the last bull run. And the global reasons for Bitcoin’s growth remain unchanged.
Therefore, this story with the drain will not affect the medium-term prospects of the market.
Interesting things:
- FTX announced payment to clients of $16 billion in the 4th quarter of 2024. The case will be heard in court on October 7. Payment, if any, will be in fiat. And a significant part of this money will end up in the crypto market. Which will be very useful for the market.
- El Salvador continues to buy 1 Bitcoin per day. I think by the end of the year they will be pleasantly surprised by the result.
The priority option for Bitcoin for today is a range with a lower limit at 53000-53500 and an upper limit at 58300-58500
Alternative - consolidation above 58500
