According to historical data, since 2018, Bitcoin has experienced a rise after a volatile period of no more than three months after a sharp drop.
After the bear market bottomed out and plummeted in 2018, it fluctuated for another 105 days, and then rose from $3,000 to $14,000. After 312, it fluctuated for 77 days, and the price of Bitcoin rose from about $7,000 to $64,000:
After the FTX explosion, the market fluctuated for only one and a half months, but the price soared from $15,000 to $30,000. After two months of fluctuations in August and September 2023, the price of Bitcoin rose from $25,000 to $70,000.
The current BTC has fluctuated from 72,000 points to the current 54,000 points for more than three months, and the callback has exceeded 25%. In history, the retracement range of each deep wash is about 30%-40%.
Judging from the time and amount of on-exchange option delivery, July 26 and September 27 were the days with relatively large delivery amounts, which were basically around 2.6 billion US dollars. The biggest pain point on July 26 was: $65,000, and the biggest pain point on September 27 was: $55,000. If we replicate the wave before the market explosion last year, clean leveraged contracts, and consider the leverage multiples, the range of $50,000-52,000 may be the bottom.
Therefore, from the data support, we can fully conclude that the current downward exploration space is very small. Considering that the upcoming catalysts are mainly centered on the US market, such as the launch of ETFs, US monetary policy and the presidential election, Bitcoin still has a high probability of ushering in a new round of bull market in the second half of 2024-2025.
Finally, if you are a pure novice, and you are excited to rush into the currency circle when you see BTC hit a record high before, then I suggest you pay attention to me first, learn the knowledge of the currency circle with me, and make up for your basic skills. Only by laying a solid foundation can you go further.
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