Macroeconomic indicators and analysis this week:

Last week, the US non-farm data for June fell sharply, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. The market's expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice this year have risen again. This week, the focus is on the US CPI data for June and Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony.

Last week review

●Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the Central Bank Forum held by the European Central Bank that the Federal Reserve has made considerable progress in inflation. However, he also said that he hopes to see more progress before he has enough confidence to start cutting interest rates. When asked what keeps him up at night, Powell pointed out that it is the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a significant deterioration in the labor market. Powell is satisfied with the downward trend of US inflation after rebounding at the beginning of the year, highlighting a cautiously optimistic mood.

●The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 150,000 in June, significantly lower than the expected 165,000, and a slight decline from the previous value of 152,000. This is the third consecutive month of decline in ADP employment and the lowest level in four months.

●The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 29 was 238,000, with an expected value of 235,000 and a previous value of 233,000.

●Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting: Inflation is continuing to decline, but it is not enough to start a rate cut.

●Minutes of the European Central Bank's June meeting: There will be two more rate cuts this year, and there is confidence in the inflation outlook.

●The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 206,000 in June, with a previous value of 272,000 and an expected value of 190,000; the unemployment rate in June rose to 4.1%, with a previous value of 4% and an expected value of 4%, the highest since November 2021.

Key events & indicators of this week

July 09

●Fed Chairman Powell delivered semi-annual monetary policy testimony at the Senate Banking Committee (22:00)

July 10

●Fed Chairman Powell delivered semi-annual monetary policy testimony at the House Financial Services Committee (22:00)

July 11

●US CPI in June (20:30)

●US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 (10,000) (20:30)

July 12

●US PPI annual rate in June (20:30)

●US one-year inflation rate expectations for July (22:00)

●Preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July (22:00)