Review and Outlook of Cryptocurrency Market in 2024
This year, Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, hit a record high after the launch of an ETF. At the same time, the US presidential election has had a lasting impact on the market, with Trump enthusiastically embracing cryptocurrencies and Biden's position unclear. The following is a brief review of the main market milestones in 2024, as well as an outlook for the market at the end of the year.
Market review for the first half of the year
The first half of 2024 will be extremely groundbreaking for the crypto market. Bitcoin prices have significantly outperformed the S&P 500, rising more than 46% in the first six months, while the S&P 500 rose only 15%.
Key Bitcoin Developments
Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which greatly promoted institutional investment.
Bitcoin Halving: On April 19, Bitcoin experienced its fourth halving, an event that occurs approximately every four years. Although the halving was expected to drive Bitcoin to new highs, market dynamics delayed a sustained rally.
Market volatility and events
However, the market is not all smooth sailing. The collapsed Bitcoin trading platform Mt. Gox announced that it would begin distributing more than $9 billion to its creditors in early July, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall below $55,000.
Despite this, institutional investors and market makers remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. The main factors driving Bitcoin’s volatility include:
Runes Protocol Launch: The Runes Protocol, launched in April, makes it possible to create alternative tokens on Bitcoin, enhancing the functionality and security of Bitcoin and driving demand and transaction volume.
Market dynamics: After reaching an all-time high of $73,794 on March 14, Bitcoin has fluctuated wildly between $60,400 and $71,700.
Ethereum’s High Moment
Ethereum (ETH) also had its own highlight moments in the first half of the year. Major events include:
Dencun Upgrade: The Dencun upgrade launched in March reduced transaction costs on Ethereum’s second-layer network.
Spot Ethereum ETFs: On May 23, the SEC approved eight spot Ethereum ETFs, which are expected to begin trading in the next few weeks.
Expansion of the stablecoin market
The stablecoin market continues to grow as demand for safe-haven assets increases during periods of market volatility. Circle’s USDC market cap surpassed $60 billion, while Tether’s market cap also grew significantly, reaching $80 billion, solidifying its position as the leading stablecoin.
Trading volume surges
As the price of Bitcoin rises, cryptocurrency trading volume surges. Binance continues to lead the industry, while major US exchanges also continue to grow.
Coinbase: Q1 trading volume hit a record high, generating revenue of $1.6 billion, more than doubling year-on-year.
Robinhood: Cryptocurrency trading volume surged 224% year-on-year to $36 billion, and trading revenue reached $126 million, an increase of 232% year-on-year.
Memecoin’s resurgence
Memecoin has once again attracted market attention in 2024. Memecoins such as TRUMP and BODEN have outperformed the market and become alternative bets on the presidential election. Celebrities have also joined the trend, although Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has reservations about "celebrity coins."
Future Outlook
Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, market analysts are optimistic about the prospects for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin: Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 in time for the US presidential election in November.
Ethereum: The market's anticipation for the upcoming start of spot Ethereum ETF trading has led to higher volatility expectations for Ethereum than Bitcoin.
