1. The U.S. economic rhythm, which is measured in months, is not suitable for a rate cut at the end of July.
2. The U.S. economy is indeed quite resilient.
3. The Fed’s first rate cut was postponed from July to September. The U.S. has basically not increased the extent of its economic sacrifice. Therefore, the lower limit of the decline in U.S. stocks is expected to remain basically unchanged - 36,580 points.
4. According to the monthly economic rhythm of the United States, mid-to-late August will be the beginning of the last economic stimulus for the United States before the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September (an economic cycle of one month).
5. In mid-to-late August, the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds will push up U.S. Treasury bond interest rates, and U.S. Treasury bond interest rates will most likely approach the 2023 high again.
6. In mid-to-late August, the US bond interest rate will rise, and the US may do something shameless again and stir up trouble everywhere. There may be some turmoil in the South China Sea, but it will not be a big deal.
7. After the Olympics ended on August 11, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may reach a small climax and escalate slightly. The short-term climax of the situation in the Middle East will only occur in July, with the oil price peaking at $86.6 (US oil) in mid-to-early July.
8. A-shares are likely to bottom out at the end of August, while US stocks may bottom out in mid-August.
9. In early September, there may be a small thunderstorm in the United States, and the U.S. stock market will hit bottom for the second time.
10. Big positive news from China and the US may have to wait until October.
11. In the short term, the Fed will only cut interest rates if the US unemployment rate exceeds 4.3 and reaches 4.4. The US unemployment rate was 4.1% in June. According to the trend of the US economy and unemployment rate, it is expected to reach 4.4 in September. Therefore, the Fed's first rate cut was in September.