Predict the next wave of market (according to the staged rhythm)

Drivers of the second half of the market: Ethereum ETF (definitely passed), SOL ETF (with a certain probability of passing), interest rate cuts and industry narratives (Ethereum, SOL ecological narratives)

At present, the above major benefits have not been realized, and the expectations are all there. After the benefits of the capital side are realized, the funds will gradually enter the market. After entering the market for a period of time, the benefits of the industry narrative will be implemented again, and the stage market speculation will end.

I think the position above 52,000 should be the bottom of this round of correction. If it falls below 52 to 42, new major negative news is needed. I can't see it at present. The power of the bears is gradually weakening. As the saying goes, the first blow will be weaker, and the third will be exhausted.

There will be no big drop in the short term, and the longer the shock here, the stronger the bottom.

The correction amplitude of this round of cottages exceeded the market's expectations. Because the increase was not high, it caused a relatively high drop. It is reasonable from the logic of following the decline of Bitcoin, but in terms of space, it is indeed not possible to cause a sharp drop due to the liquidity problems of many projects and dispersed funds.

The only core answer is emotional wash. At present, the cottage represents the emotions of retail investors. At present, the retail investors holding cottage have reached the highest level in history. There are very few retail investors holding Bitcoin and Ethereum. Only the big wash of the cottage will cause panic in the bull market, and retail investors will wash away, making the market healthier.

In short, the most difficult stage is finally over. Many big negatives have landed. The liquidation data in the past few days has been comparable to the FTX explosion at the end of 22. The characteristics of the bottom are gradually increasing. I suggest that everyone should not be too emotional and bearish. Maybe I am currently at the bottom, and I will know the answer in a few months.

In addition, many people do not believe in cottages. The main purpose has been achieved. The second half is the home court of Ethereum, SOL and cottages. Driven by the big positives I mentioned, the cottage will benefit the most. Letting retail investors reach the climax of the bull market in the second half can only be the wealth effect of cottages, and it is also the only means to let more people enter the market to take over.

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