Madman said…

It’s gone down, it’s gone down completely, almost all small coins have been spared, and the word “harvest” has been vividly reflected. This bull market almost started in the second quarter, and the small coins continued to plummet one-sidedly. At that time, a madman even wrote an article , compared the market value of small coins in this bull market and the previous bull market. The market value of small coins in the last bull market rose from 200 billion US dollars to 1.2 trillion US dollars, while the market value of this round of small coins has dropped from 1.06 trillion US dollars at the end of April. It has reached 620 billion today. If compared with the 200 billion starting point of the last bull market, then with the current over-issuance of small coins and the high level of Bitcoin, such a valuation is no longer high. In other words, even if the liquidity on the market is poor, VC coins No matter how much they are FUD, the room for small coins to fall is already very limited. Of course, there are some garbage tokens with larger market values, but they still have room to fall. The real little guys have market values ​​of tens of millions, even for projects. No one has any thoughts of smashing the market anymore. Is it because the sentiment of retail investors continues to fall?

Having finished talking about small coins, the conclusion is that there is not much room for decline, but if the general environment is not good and Bitcoin continues to fall, then we have to tolerate them falling by another 10-20%. A collective plunge like today may not be easy in the future. Appeared.

Let’s talk about Bitcoin. The pin reached 53000 today. The madman published an article on May 1st saying that the 53000-56000 position has strong support. Now that it has reached, there will definitely be a rebound, but we must pay close attention to the quality of this rebound. Pay attention, if it cannot stand back to 63,000 (the starting point of this wave of decline) in 1-2 weeks, then the probability of horizontally continuing to find support will increase. After this round of new highs, it has been horizontal for nearly 4 months today. We can clearly see that continued shipments from high-level platforms exist. If the U.S. macroeconomic environment does not improve and the 4-month sideways platform is missed, we can almost confirm that Bitcoin will continue to find support downwards. , and the next support level will directly see 42000-45000, which is a very scary thing, because it is very likely that there will be signs of a bear turn, which is what we least want to see.

From another perspective, the current selling pressure mainly comes from Mentougou’s compensation of 140,000 tokens, the German government’s 40,000 tokens, miners, the 2 million tokens circulating on the market, the continued small outflow of ETFs, anecdotal rumors and our government . These forces jointly directed this wave of decline, but now more than 75% of the mining machine models have hit the shutdown price, and the only ones left are the recent batch of new mining machines. Against the background of declining computing power, Bitcoin continues to trend. The chances of a downward spiral are extremely low and have not happened historically (against all whales, institutions, governments, miners and mining interests). So from this perspective, the probability of Bitcoin V returning above 63,000 is higher than that of falling to 42,000.

There is nothing new in ETH, and TVL staking has plummeted. We need to wait for new innovations. I don’t know if this new project with 85 million US dollars in financing can bring vitality to the Ethereum ecosystem. An open source AI project hopes to be able to break out of the circle. Well, after all, the target is CHATGPT. At present, the overall linkage is mainly with Bitcoin.

There are institutional liquidations below SOL 110, so there is a high probability that it will not touch this position. Institutions will protect the market. From a morphological point of view, it is still oscillating at a high platform. This position is a good position for short-term action.

In short, every time you hug your head and cry, call your father or mother, or lie down and pretend to be dead, it is a short-term rebound opportunity. I believe this time is no exception. The key point is to look at the strength of the rebound. The faster the package is returned, the stronger the rebound will be. , the more optimistic the market outlook is. On the contrary, if it rises horizontally, then I'm sorry, see you below 50,000!

 

Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.

〈[Madman Talks about Trends] A collective plunge like today may not happen easily in the future〉 This article was first published on "Block Guest".