The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only
Coking coal
Trading logic: Hot metal production remains high; domestic coal mines resume production slowly; coke production of coke steel enterprises increases; long-process capacity stops falling and stabilizes
Risk factors: Insufficient willingness to replenish inventory at all links; Mongolian coal customs clearance volume quickly rebounded to a new high; mine inventory pressure is relatively high
Focus on events: Policies related to the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee; real estate transactions; resumption of work and production in coal mines, etc.
soda ash
Trading logic: The market is optimistic about real estate policies; summer maintenance and some alkali plants resumed production less than expected; in July, the downstream photovoltaic industry plans to start up 4 production lines; profits are at a historical low for the same period
Risk factors: The market expects that inventory will reach a new high in the third quarter; the downstream glass factories' purchasing power will decrease; spot market prices will be reduced
Focus on events: Orders received by alkali plants and inventory changes; maintenance progress of large plants; supply and demand of downstream glass, etc.
Palm Oil
Trading logic: Indonesia's July crude palm oil reference price is higher than that in June; Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 to 5 increased by 150.94% month-on-month; USDA lowered its forecast for Malaysian palm oil production in 2023/24; domestic palm oil purchase progress is slightly slow
Risk factors: Sufficient supply of soybean and rapeseed oil; the market expects Malaysian palm oil inventory to increase month-on-month in June; domestic palm oil inventory has risen for two consecutive weeks
Focus events: MPOB June supply and demand monthly report; weather conditions in major palm oil producing areas in Malaysia and Indonesia; domestic palm oil purchase and port arrival conditions, etc.
PTA
Trading logic: The operating rates of polyester and looms are at a low level in the past three years; the equipment returns to an inventory accumulation pattern; Indonesia announces the imposition of safeguard tariffs; there is a possibility of seasonal weakening in weaving demand
Risk factors: Spot prices strengthened month-on-month; crude oil market performance was relatively strong; social inventory has been declining for three consecutive weeks; circulating inventory is also at a three-year low
Focus events: Unplanned maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts; crude oil market price changes and related news; China's response to Indonesia's tariffs, etc.
European Line
Trading logic: SCFIS quotes rise beyond expectations; port workers' strikes may expand; geopolitical conflicts may escalate; most freight forwarders have accepted high freight rates; tariffs imposed by Brazil, the United States, the European Union and other places have led to rush shipments
Risk factors: The eurozone economy is weak; long-term contract release of space may bring marginal supply growth; there are signs of divergence between the recent cargo solicitation of shipping companies and spot freight rates
Focus on events: the progress of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; the status of Christmas stocking; the implementation of the previous price increases by major shipping companies; the actual impact of the European workers' strike movement on port operation efficiency, etc.
Urea
Trading logic: India's IPL issued a urea tender; Northeast and Northwest regions are still in the topdressing period; inventory levels are still relatively low
Risk factors: Downstream resistance is increasing; upstream supply is increasing; downstream demand for compound fertilizer is weakening
Focus on events: production capacity deployment progress; demand stocking strength; international market changes; export policy changes, etc.
Shanghai Copper
Trading logic: The Fed meeting minutes expressed a dovish stance; the US unemployment rate in June rose to a new high since November 2021; major developed countries around the world may usher in a relatively loose monetary policy
Risk factors: Marginal surplus of refined copper on the supply side; resumption of production on the demand side is lower than expected; US non-farm payrolls in June are higher than market expectations; global visible inventory is still accumulated
Focus events: Changes in US economic data; changes in copper concentrate processing fees; changes in global copper inventories; electrolytic copper supply, etc.
Disclaimer
The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
