The non-farm data that everyone is paying attention to this week:

The unemployment rate of 4.1% is consistent with Zhou Yi's expectations and is slightly higher than last month;

The new non-farm employment is 206,000, which seems to be higher than the consensus expectations of institutions, but the new non-farm employment in May was revised down to 218,000, which means that the new non-farm employment is not that strong;

The hourly wage is 3.9% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous value and in line with the consensus expectations, and the monthly rate is also lower than the previous value.

How do you view this data?

1. From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, the new non-farm is not that strong, and the unemployment rate is rising. In particular, if the unemployment rate continues to rise, then there is sufficient reason to cut interest rates.

At the same time, the hourly wage growth rate is slowing down, which is also conducive to the weakening of service industry inflation. The expectation of interest rate cut transactions should be raised.

2. But on the other hand, we should also pay attention to the fact that the ISM non-manufacturing PMI announced on Wednesday night fell below the boom-bust line of 50, which was significantly lower than expected. Combined with the unemployment rate of 4.1%, the expectation of a subtle recession will also increase.

3. In addition, the overnight interbank bond rate in the United States unexpectedly rose slightly on June 30, and there is a sign of tightening interbank liquidity. This may also be related to the recent slight decline in the size of U.S. commercial bank reserves.

Overall, tonight's non-agricultural data is a sign of marginal improvement. Next week's CPI data is more critical, but we cannot be optimistic immediately. The game between the two expectations of interest rate cuts and recession will make the market more complicated. Moreover, for such a large drop in the currency market, it will take a long time to regain momentum.